Election 2020

padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I don't think the Democrats will be able to pack the SC

even if they win the Senate they almost definitely won't have the supermajority required to override GOP filibuster

and it's very difficult to see any Republican senators crossing the aisle on courtpacking legislation

nor should Democratic unity be assumed. it's an issue that makes people uneasy.

FDR's attempt to pack the court failed or was at best a Pyrrhic victory

he basically got his way with the New Deal but the backlash murdered the Democrats in the '38 midterms
 
luka

luka

Well-known member
as i see it you have two major interpretatrions of the last term, one sees chaos, terrible chaos, riots in the streets, the other sees a hero trying to change the direction of a rogue state a state whih uses every trick in the book to stymie him. and as a result has been unable to fulfil his vision for america deep state has tripped Him up at every turn.
 
luka

luka

Well-known member
But he's useful in that he proves an Oxford educated millionaire not a trailer park degenerate can buy into this version of events
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I can see Biden winning, by a convincing but perhaps not huge majority, and Trump's team then scrambling for anything and everything they can to cast doubt on the result - inventing electoral irregularities, trying to rule state laws about the timing of postal votes "unconstitutional", mysterious fires at facilities where postal votes are stored and counted, poorly doctored videos of Biden appearing to admit that he's a stupid moron with an ugly face and a big butt and his butt smells and he likes to smell his own butt, etc. etc.
 
luka

luka

Well-known member
If my hero Corbin had faced the Same resistance I would also have attributed those problems to the deep state and seen them as proof of how deep rooted that deep state is
 
sus

sus

Moderator
@IdleRich you can draw up the odds/line for

(If chaos is >100 deaths and/or US military involvement and/or disruption of power transfer...)

Biden wins and chaos: .5% chance. Biden wins and no chaos: 69.5%. Trump wins and chaos: .1% chance. Trump wins and no chaos: 29.9%
 
sus

sus

Moderator
People talk about secession but Trump states & agriculture rely too damn much on the federal government to pass on coastal taxes, and they know it.

The logistics of revolution/armed uprising are really, really different in 2020 than they were in 1865. A couple states couldn't raise any kind of army to enforce its declaration of secession; manpower wouldn't matter much even if they could muster it.

Many Trump supporters have gotten the biggest thing they want already—court seats.

And finally, Biden isn't the antichrist that, e.g., evangelicals feared Obama (or even Clinton) was; he's a relatively centrist guy who'll run a relatively centrist administration. The political tension in this country isn't over Biden, it's over the woke left—things might be different if a culturally radical left administration was coming in; it's not.
 
luka

luka

Well-known member
im not a cynic i find trump terrifying but at the same time i would like to think you can change the direction of a state given a democratic mandate
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
suspendedreason said:
People talk about secession but Trump states & agriculture rely too damn much on the federal government to pass on coastal taxes, and they know it.

Also the logistics of revolution/armed uprising are really, really different in 2020 than they were in 1865. A couple states couldn't raise any kind of army to enforce its declaration of secession; manpower wouldn't matter much even if they could muster it.
Click to expand...
yes it's not a realistic thing in any sense

there's some thread where I went into that in more detail

1850s had a clear geographic split over a single wedge issue, the professional military was extremely small, etc
 
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padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
but there are many levels of chaos short of "secession and civil war"

domestic terrorism, violent streetfighting, etc seem like reasonable possibilities

not guaranteed or anything but greater than a >1% chance
 
sus

sus

Moderator
Right, they didn't even have a conception of "the United States" or nationalism or even a strong federal government, at that point. They were borderline a confederation; a lot of the federalism and national-level (rather than state-level) patriotism came post-bellum.
 
sus

sus

Moderator
@padraig (u.s.) I think that's reasonable but that's been going on literally all year, 100+ people have been killed in civil unrest since late spring and hundreds of millions in property has been destroyed
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
suspendedreason said:
hundreds of people have been killed in civil unrest since late spring
Click to expand...
where are you getting hundreds? it's more like a few dozen, the exact number depending on what you count as deaths related to civil unrest

not that a few dozen is an insignificant number

but if there's a higher accounting of deaths somewhere I'd be interested to see it
 
sus

sus

Moderator
Edited to 100+, I just meant in reference to the "100 people" criteria above

I saw numbers like 20-odd in several publications in June/July, and I'd imagine that there's a lot of undercounting—e.g. homicide waves due to under-policing—as well as a fair amount since. 40-50 might be a more reasonable count, don't know much about this issue or the homicide waves.
 
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