version

Well-known member
The Israeli intelligence failures get more ridiculous with each revelation:

A senior Israeli military intelligence officer dismissed a detailed warning predicting Hamas’s raid of October 7, calling it an “imaginary scenario”, said two people familiar with the discussions.

Sentries on Israel’s border with Gaza, many of them female soldiers who watch and analyse a constant feed of video and other data gathered near the electronic fence surrounding the enclave, sent a detailed report weeks before the attack to the highest-ranking intelligence officer in the southern command, both people said.

The report was sent using a secure communications system and contained specific warnings, including that Hamas was training to blow up border posts at several locations, enter Israeli territory and take over kibbutzim, the person with direct knowledge of the contents of the warning said.

The lower-ranking soldiers also warned their analysis of several videos showed Hamas was rehearsing taking hostages, and that they felt an attack was imminent, the person said.

 

maxi

Well-known member
It just goes to show how dishonest they are when justifying policy on the grounds of security. security isn't even a priority (if we mean security of the Israeli population).
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
The Israeli intelligence failures get more ridiculous with each revelation:
they got complacent and sloppy, just like 73. heads of Shin Bet and Aman both publicly apologized iirc.

Netanyahu still carries a huge portion of the blame, not only for ignoring the more general warnings about lapses in Israeli security posture but also for making the entire country's focus for months his attempt to overthrow the courts. a lot of countries have that weird split between extremely serious foreign or domestic issues and run of the mill corruption scandals but Israeli politics really takes it to another level.
 

version

Well-known member
Both said the warnings were dismissed not just because they came from lower-ranking soldiers, but because they ran up against the Israeli government’s confidence that it had contained Hamas through a punishing blockade, by bombing its military capabilities, and using aid and money as a mean to placate the Palestinian militant group.

An attack of that nature by Hamas would immediately trigger war with the Jewish state, which the Israeli intelligence community was convinced the militant group was seeking to avoid.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
yeah the containment policy has received extremely strong and widespread criticism in Israel

again, like 73, they thought they'd cowed the Arab states. they were wrong.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
The Israeli intelligence failures get more ridiculous with each revelation.
Reading this, it's hard to avoid the feeling that nice, progressive Israel may have fallen victim to an attack by wicked, reactionary Hamas because their top brass ignored warnings that came from women who were probably worrying their pretty little heads about nothing, you know, like they do.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
seems like a good bet that once the war proper is over Mossad will attempt a post-Munich style assassination campaign against any Hamas leadership that makes it out of Gaza (Sinwar, Deif etc) and possibly the foreign leadership too
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
that lady is retired (at least temporarily) from politics but she was a big deal in the secular Israeli right for all of the 2010s

big Yulia Tymoshenko energy. I'm surprised @craner hasn't already written a longform essay about her.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
The Israeli intelligence failures get more ridiculous with each revelation:
The lessons of these atrocities to wannabe terrorists is to plan six sigma attacks that are of such scale that they cannot be believed. Who would have thought that 9/11 would happen, for instance? Nassim Taleb needs to write a book about this.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
can bibi survive this or will he have to go?
well, the anger against at both him and the prewar govt more generally is widespread and very strong. liberals and the left already hated him, so no surprise there, but he's also hemorrhaging support from his base. Likud polling numbers have fallen off a cliff since Oct 7 and his personal approval ratings are even worse. specifically, Likud is losing voter share to Benny Gantz's less extreme center-right coalition. otoh he's a slippery, amoral, narcissistic bastard and importantly there's not really a mechanism for removing him if doesn't want to go.

he's consistently avoided taking any kind of responsibility for Oct 7 and tried, unsuccessfully so far, to pawn it all off onto the intelligence services (which obv deserve some portion of blame). the longer he can drag this war out, or drag out whatever they call wartime - i.e. he could say that any post-war occupation until some new authority, be it the PA or whoever, takes over Gaza, is still a national emergency - the more he time he has to maneuver, continue trying to pawn responsibilty off, and wait for the political winds to somehow shift back in his favor. he's already trying to make the inquiry into its failures a govt one that he can can control, rather than a state-backed but independent inquiry like there was in 73.

and aside from his personal narcissism, the corruption trial - whence his nakedly Faustian deal with the Haredi and religious settler parties so he could avoid having to partner with anyone who'd reign him in i.e. Gantz or Yair Lapid - is still hanging over his head and he has to stay in power to continue his attempt to overthrow the judicial system, which you'd think was dead or at least on pause with the war but is in fact in still going strong. the Supreme Court has two vacancies and the minister of a justice, a Bibi lackey, is currently refusing to hold meetings to nominate new justices.

so idk man. you'd think he he as to go but it's more complicated. one possibility is a deal to somehow mitigate or drop the corruption charges if he agrees to resign but that's probably a last resort.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
it is insane that Israel is so yoked to this egomaniac btw

you know what's funny is that the previous generation of Revisionist Zionists actually saw it coming before anyone. there's a surprising number of insightful takes on young Bibi from people like Yitzhak Shamir and even his own father - basically, that he's always been a shallow, self-absorbed demagogue. and he really did pioneer the modern iteration of right-wing populism. all the stuff he does - whipping up support against a largely imaginary elite (or one which he is, in fact, a key member of) and riding the tiger of pandering to far-right militancy with plausible deniability for its actions - he's been doing since the 90s. speaking of assassination, he bears no small responsbility for Rabin's. his political alliance with Ben-Gvir and Kahanism is an extension of his parasocial relationship with Kahanists, including a young Ben-Gvir, in the 90s. the warning signs were all there all along.
 

version

Well-known member
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