mixed_biscuits
_________________________
Infectivity is proportional to symptom severity so you'd get a steadily dwindling series of recurrences if the HK case is the case...
Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)
- Thread starter HMGovt’s Glorious Return!
- Start date
-
- Tags
- "the delta variant" starring arnold schwarzenegger #braille4bats and dancing!!! biscuits nuts bodies in the streets cool people with bad lungs corpsey = patient zero do you ever look at this thread and wtf get pits done haha protein printer go brrr i'm trapped please help johnson’s technique please boris die public health films for bats rodent trumpet rotting corpses sailing the sea of biscuits slick prick soggy biscuits wash hands or die trying we are the swarm wear a fucking baguette then wubonic plague wuhan got you all in check
- Status
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Phew! I was worried for a minute then.
slackk
-
Surely this strengthens the case for herd immunity, not weakens it. If you can catch it again and again and transmit again and again there is no option other than herd immunity, or a vaccine pretty soon.
Either that or us lot who've had the bug run around doing whatever we want and you none covids lock yourself in the house doing nothing.
I am working off the assumption that I've come into contact with it more than once tbh, I've been back in work since April and have gone all over the place. It's inevitable
Either that or us lot who've had the bug run around doing whatever we want and you none covids lock yourself in the house doing nothing.
I am working off the assumption that I've come into contact with it more than once tbh, I've been back in work since April and have gone all over the place. It's inevitable
IdleRich
IdleRich
But if there is no immunity then how can there be herd immunity?
slackk
-
This Wikipedia page is my only frame of reference tbh
en.m.wikipedia.org
...
The number of deaths peaked the week ending 17 October, with 600 reported in England and Wales. The vaccine was available in the same month in the United Kingdom.[3] Although it was initially available only in limited quantities,[10][3] its rapid deployment helped contain the pandemic.[2]
H2N2 influenza virus continued to transmit until 1968, when it transformed via antigenic shift into influenza A virus subtype H3N2, the cause of the 1968 influenza pandemic.
1957–1958 influenza pandemic - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
...
The number of deaths peaked the week ending 17 October, with 600 reported in England and Wales. The vaccine was available in the same month in the United Kingdom.[3] Although it was initially available only in limited quantities,[10][3] its rapid deployment helped contain the pandemic.[2]
H2N2 influenza virus continued to transmit until 1968, when it transformed via antigenic shift into influenza A virus subtype H3N2, the cause of the 1968 influenza pandemic.
slackk
-
It would be good if they could. But both big flu epidemics people have documented didn't work out like that did it? 1918 & 1957 both seem to have adjusted into the system albeit on a lesser scale, eventually.
That said I didn't think covid felt like the flu at all, so maybe I shouldn't compare it to it. It felt a lot grottier I would say
That said I didn't think covid felt like the flu at all, so maybe I shouldn't compare it to it. It felt a lot grottier I would say
IdleRich
IdleRich
I think what I'm trying to say is that - as I understand it - vaccine and herd immunity are totally different.
1. Vaccine - create something that stops anyone getting it and make sure everyone takes it
2. Herd immunity - let everyone get it and hope our species finds a way to deal with it, or at least enough survive to make us viable.
If two works then it's the same result I guess but the route there is very different. I guess you could argue that herd immunity is safer in that humans defeated smallpox... but, it remains in labs and they believe that if it did get out it would wipe us out, cos we are now totally defenceless against it.6
slackk
-
Sorry, yes, I don't necessarily think you should be allowed to just run riot and create herd immunity that way- ultimately if the bug blazed through certain businesses in the way it did London in March then the supply chain falls apart and everyone is fucked. England is too densely populated to allow the Swedish method
But - I don't think you can kill off one of these Covids in the way that they did smallpox necessarily, because its airborne and clearly lives in animals quite happily. The best case scenario is that the strain lessens and it becomes akin to a seasonal flu, but much grottier and with the potential to do more damage. It might end up akin to a mild seasonal TB in the cases of some people, judging by long-term effects. Which is a weird sentence.
It's difficult to quantify, though, as there is also the case wherein it's remodelled society to such a degree so quickly in the way that earlier ones couldn't, because of the networked society we live in. I think it might seem like a much more epochal disease as a result, because our infrastructure is so different to 1957 or whatever.
But then maybe there were knobheads typing newsletters then saying it's the end of the world, leave the old dears to die and look at what Norway are doing, they're all sound and they just let it run. Fuck knows
Things seem much more important when you're doing them, eh.
But - I don't think you can kill off one of these Covids in the way that they did smallpox necessarily, because its airborne and clearly lives in animals quite happily. The best case scenario is that the strain lessens and it becomes akin to a seasonal flu, but much grottier and with the potential to do more damage. It might end up akin to a mild seasonal TB in the cases of some people, judging by long-term effects. Which is a weird sentence.
It's difficult to quantify, though, as there is also the case wherein it's remodelled society to such a degree so quickly in the way that earlier ones couldn't, because of the networked society we live in. I think it might seem like a much more epochal disease as a result, because our infrastructure is so different to 1957 or whatever.
But then maybe there were knobheads typing newsletters then saying it's the end of the world, leave the old dears to die and look at what Norway are doing, they're all sound and they just let it run. Fuck knows
Things seem much more important when you're doing them, eh.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
Lockdown excess deaths
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-168
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-168
Attachments
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Africa was declared polio-free for the first time yesterday, mainly due (I assume) to vaccination.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
USA's official death toll stands at 182,400 as of now. With an averaged daily toll of 965, that gives us ~19 days till the magic number of 200,000 is reached. Given that the death rate is very slowly decreasing, and may be down to 900/day within a couple of weeks, I'm prepared to push the predicted date of what I'm calling "M-Day" out to September 18.
- Status