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IdleRich

IdleRich
You're making things up and Mr Tea gets his info from a single anonymous source in a satirical magazine.
I don't see much difference between completely ignoring stats you don't like and inventing ones you do - at least I was obviously joking and made that clear in the next post. I'm not actually basing my arguments on selected facts and stats.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
@IdleRich You need to explain how Sweden can have had weeks of increasing cases with no increasing deaths.
It's a wealthy country with very good health and social care, and good levels of public health generally, and quite possibly most of their very vulnerable have died already.

Doesn't mean plenty of people who are catching it aren't going to end up with long-term health problems, which you insist on ignoring with this obsession with deaths as the only worthwhile metric.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
Broadly, across the world, deaths are a function of cases. There can be local variations and outliers of course.
Now we know that there are problems both with measuring cases (here in Portugal I can see that they are not testing everyone, even some who have symptoms, and from personal experience it seems clear that they are gonna be undercounting the cases) and attributing deaths... but I think each stat is likely to be - at the very least - a guide to what's happening. If there is a spike in cases measured it's hard to argue that there is no underlying increase in cases unless you can point to a sudden change in the methodology that occurred with the spike.
We know in Florida as well that the government took the power from the doctors to report case levels and so on and they have a vested interest in playing them down.
So there are two scenarios we are considering here....
Scenario one - Florida relaxed lockdown and as everyone predicted the number of cases has risen - and most likely the number of deaths (in a state with so many old people) will increase soon too.
Scenario two - Florida relaxed lockdown but as MB predicted there was no increase in cases although somehow a body with a vested interest in playing down the number of cases accidentally reported a massive (but erroneous) spike that wasn't there. And anyway, in Sweden a lower percentage of people seem to have been dying per case so the whole thing was made up by the media and Boris anyway.
You've just to pick which one seems more likely.
I'm going for the one that doesn't have Mr "no chance we'll reach 200k deaths this year" backing it.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
The function changes as the outbreak develops; this is why the CFR and IFR decrease over time.
Seemingly yes. But until we have deaths inversely proportional to cases then surely reducing cases has to be a good thing.
And, I know that you literally can't see the words that I'm about to write, but also it can be serious for people who catch the disease but don't die. So reducing cases certainly ought to be an aim.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
One thing I really don't get is this thing where shops have to shut at an earlier time or whatever. I'm thinking specifically of Belgium now cos I just read this but really it's the same anywhere.
intensive care units will be overrun in a fortnight if the current rate of infection continues, a spokesman for country’s Covid-19 crisis centre has said, writes Daniel Boffey, the Guardian’s Brussels bureau chief.
Dr Yves Van Laethem said the 2000 intensive care beds would be full with patients without a change of course.
An average of 12,491 new coronavirus infections were recorded per day between 16 and 22 October, up 44% than the previous week.
Daily hospital admissions over the same period were up 85% week-on-week to 467.7 on average a day. There are currently 4,827 people being treated in hospital for Covid-19, including 757 people in intensive care
On Monday morning, new regulations came into force in Brussels, where the rate of infections has been particularly high. Sports centres and gyms have been forced to close. Shops have been told to shut by 8pm every day and the half-term school break next week will be extended by three days.
It seems to me that if food shops shut at 8pm every day, then all the people (who still need to eat) will do their shopping in a smaller window and so the shop will be more crowded when it is open, social distancing will be harder, and the virus is more likely to spread. What am I missing here?
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Seemingly yes. But until we have deaths inversely proportional to cases then surely reducing cases has to be a good thing.

Depends what the costs are. We could eliminate car accidents by establishing a 5mph speed limit but I don't think people would go for it.
 

mixed_biscuits

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It seems to me that if food shops shut at 8pm every day, then all the people (who still need to eat) will do their shopping in a smaller window and so the shop will be more crowded when it is open, social distancing will be harder, and the virus is more likely to spread. What am I missing here?

Even better: set up special shopping hours for key workers and oldies that matchmake the most likely to be infected (and furthermore active while infected as they have important roles) with the most susceptible.
 
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