craner

Beast of Burden
"i went on a road trip through the deep south with my dad. we were eating cheese grits, macaroni salad, tater tots and syrup waffles in a roadside diner when i had the epiphany 'dad' i shouted, grabbing his arm with all the hysteria of sudden revelation. 'Trump is going to take it!'"
You're just still annoyed because I was right and it made you look silly. ;)
 

craner

Beast of Burden
Nobody really talked about Trump on that trip. As I actually said in that post, when we were there it was the GOP nomination debates and nobody was taking his prospects seriously at all. He was just making a lot of noise and grabbing all the headlines. He was a joke then.

But then, all of a sudden, he wasn't!
 

Corpsey

call me big papa
I basically predicted Boris Johnson as PM on page 1. Even more politically astute than Craner, and I don't even know anything about politics!
 

Corpsey

call me big papa
To make successful political predictions I think you have to be in touch with the common people. Craner presumably fraternises with such types in South Wales pubs. He knows which way the herd is meandering — and whether crisps are more or less popular than nuts at the moment.

Most political journalists canvas for opinions at highgate garden parties, so they never could see trump coming.
 

craner

Beast of Burden
I got the hunch in 2015 through doorstep canvassing and putting two and two together from what people were saying over and over again. The Brexit thing was again overhearing conversations in all sorts of places and realizing that immigration was the thing that was dominating those conversations, and if that was replicated across large parts of the country then the vote had a good chance of going for Brexit, which is all I said in that thread. The Trump thing was more of a vague hunch, really, but it was based on what I said on Page 12. These are the only successes I have had in this field and the only strong feelings I have had about elections that have gone against the grain.
 
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craner

Beast of Burden
Don't predict what you want to happen. Don't cling to polls that confirm what you desire. Listen to unguarded conversations and pay attention to unsolicited opinions.
 

luka

Well-known member
Staff member
spend a lot of time in Barry Wetherspoons not in the London literary salons and drawing rooms I loaf around in, trading apercus
 

Corpsey

call me big papa
When I was at comprehensive school I was in the mix with all sorts of people, from all sorts of backgrounds, heading for all sorts of destinies (although obviously this being an oxfordshire comprehensive it was basically totally made of up of white people).

Then I went to University and already there was less of a mix. And I gravitated towards the people who liked the same music/culture etc. — who were, in an institution where being left wing was already presumably the prevailing normal, more left wing than most.

After Uni I worked quite a few low-paid jobs in warehouses and offices, and was once again in the mix with a wider range of people. And that's when you start hearing stuff like anti-immigrant opinions cropping up again. (You'd only hear these in University world swathed in irony.)

Then I somehow started zeroing in on a 'proper' career (God help me) and the mix steadily disappeared again — where i work now is somewhat mixed in terms of nationalities, sexuality, race — but it's all middle-class, university educated people who by consensus believe that brexit is terrible, trump is satan, etc.

I don't disagree with these opinions (obviously) but I do find it interesting how you can grow up in a quite mixed environment and then by dint of education/profession end up not knowing anybody who thinks anything different from you.
 

luka

Well-known member
Staff member
that seems to be at least part of what makes people become far stupider as they go into their 30s and 40s. its like the reduced plasticity of the brain finds its counterpart in a reduced plasticity in the social circle
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
So Republicans still trying to get the ACA (which is Obamacare I guess) ruled unconstitutional. I just saw an interview with Trump's spokeswoman McEnery (I think - maybe McEnemey) and they asked her if the Repubs were doing the right thing in trying to remove the law with nothing ready to replace it. She replied - completely straightfaced - no I think they'll realise that it's the fault of Democrats who put in place an unconstitutional law.
As if... people who can't get health care will be saying "Thanks GOP for removing that unconstitutional rule which I may have unwittingly benefited from - phew lucky escape there!".
 

Leo

Well-known member
forget trying to kill a law when they have nothing to replace it with...how about the wisdom of trying to eliminate healthcare coverage for 23 million people in the middle of a deadly pandemic?! sounds like a winning platform to me!
 

Leo

Well-known member
also, can you imagine how your friends tom cotton and Lyndsey Graham would be reacting right now if these Russia-Taliban allegations came out during the Obama presidency?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
may drop out of the 2020 presidential race if he believes he has no chance of winning, a Republican Party operative reportedly told Fox News.
The claim comes in a report in the president’s favourite news outlet that cites a number of GOP insiders who are concerned about Mr Trump’s re-election prospects amid abysmal polling numbers.
I keep seeing this story today... hard to credit it to be honest.
 
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