padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
could someone know actually knows what they're talking - presumably @vimothy - comment on the significance of this?

I assume everyone who wanted to get out of the Russian debt business has long since gotten out

and this cannot be any kind of a surprise to investors or anyone else - one of the most predictable defaults in all of financial history, I'd think

more difficult for Russian govt to borrow abroad but surely that was already quite difficult? even with that part the world not involved in sanctions

seems essentially symbolic? granted entire financial system is "symbolic", but you know what I mean
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
not to say that to be symbolic is to be meaningless, tbc

I'd very much include default media wrangling - i.e. the Russian semantic argument that it's artificially created by sanctions - as part of that unofficial public negotiation I mentioned above

as well as Zelensky's statement to the G-7 leaders that he wants the war to be over by year's end
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I'm sure Putin is just loving all the "First time Russia has defaulted on international debt since the Bolsheviks after the Revolution" sub-headlines, btw
 

HMGovt

Bamber Clatscoigne
I think if anything the descent into bloody stalemate militates against nuclear weapons, at least

that seemed much less unlikely when the news was all the Russians getting their asses handed to them

they seem to basically have achieved/be achieving their objectives

unfortunately potential global famine and other disastrous economic consequences do still loom large

@catalog I very strongly doubt anyone will attack Russian cities. that would be fucking crazy, and almost certainly counterproductive.

that's the whole point of a proxy war

Tony Blair will solemnly argue that using trident against the Putin is the right thing to do. I saw it in a skunk vision in 2002, and they've always come true.
 

vimothy

yurp
could someone know actually knows what they're talking - presumably @vimothy - comment on the significance of this?

I assume everyone who wanted to get out of the Russian debt business has long since gotten out

and this cannot be any kind of a surprise to investors or anyone else - one of the most predictable defaults in all of financial history, I'd think

more difficult for Russian govt to borrow abroad but surely that was already quite difficult? even with that part the world not involved in sanctions

seems essentially symbolic? granted entire financial system is "symbolic", but you know what I mean

it's not actually true, for starters. they defaulted twice in the 90s, I think.

I doubt it's massively significant either, it's already cut off from funding markets but Russia can obvs access foreign currency anyway since everyone is still buying its exported oil and gas
 

vimothy

yurp
This is kind of what I was talking about earlier in the thread, too - you have to get into the worldview that a load of Russian soldiers rolling over the border of a neighbouring state and indiscriminately shelling residentials areas is just routine stuff, but a US jet bombing them while they're doing it would be an act of unprovoked aggression by America.
yes but it's not simply a question of whether retaliation against Russia is justified but rather whether that retaliation is likely to result in nuclear war. after all, you could imagine a similar convo post invasion of iraq. why shouldn't we bomb american positions, isnt it all equivalent, since they're doing the same to the Iraqis? morally maybe it is, but that doesnt mean we're prepared to declare war on the US.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
it's not actually true, for starters. they defaulted twice in the 90s, I think.

I doubt it's massively significant either, it's already cut off from funding markets but Russia can obvs access foreign currency anyway since everyone is still buying its exported oil and gas
the 90s default was on domestic debt

tho it actually had worse (I believe) effects on the international finance system than this one, i.e. it was the death blow for Long-Term Capital Management. I assume unlike this people didn't see it coming.

and thanks, that's basically what I thought.
 

suspended

Well-known member
Everything I've heard leaking out of the strategy sphere (junior officer bloggers, para-DC heads independent-minded enough to run anonymous substacks) is that Western sanctions have been next to useless, Russia is as strong economically as when they started this war, they have the resources to indefinitely continue it, and US administration is trying to pivot hard to reconciliation strategies
 

suspended

Well-known member
Biggest effect of oil boycott seems to have been giving China—a much more significant long-term geopolitical rival for the US—a big discount on energy
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Everything I've heard leaking out of the strategy sphere (junior officer bloggers, para-DC heads independent-minded enough to run anonymous substacks) is that Western sanctions have been next to useless, Russia is as strong economically as when they started this war, they have the resources to indefinitely continue it, and US administration is trying to pivot hard to reconciliation strategies

What I'm hearing on a more personal level is it's hurting the people if not the state.
 

pattycakes_

Well-known member

“Pouring arms in isn’t going to bring about a solution, it’s only going to prolong and exaggerate this war,” Corbyn said. “We might be in for years and years of a war in Ukraine.”

Corbyn gave the interview on Al Mayadeen, a Beirut-based TV channel that has carried pro-Russia reporting since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“What I find disappointing is that hardly any of the world’s leaders use the word peace; they always use the language of more war, and more bellicose war.”

He added: “This war is disastrous for the people of Ukraine, for the people of Russia, and for the safety and security of the whole world, and therefore there has to be much more effort put into peace.”

He called for the UN to be “much more centre stage”, and suggested involving other international bodies such as the African Union or the League of Arab States if the UN were unable to help negotiate a ceasefire.


I like the sentiment but in all likelihood this would just lead to UKR getting steamrolled, right?
 
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