catalog

Well-known member
I feel like India could be cooking the books like China might have also done. Beggars belief that it's not spread in some of those cities. Unless it's the smog and or transition to warmer weather
 

droid

Well-known member
Smokers and ex-smokers are more critically affected, I think that's been proven. Nobody is sure yet why men are more likely to be badly hit.

It's particularly bad in italy due to there being so many old people and the virus being allowed to spread unchecked for so long.

Russia is probably in for a torrid time but I'd say the real numbers are being kept under wraps.
 

luka

Well-known member
I feel like India could be cooking the books like China might have also done. Beggars belief that it's not spread in some of those cities. Unless it's the smog and or transition to warmer weather

Yeah quite possibly a load of countries are cooking the books. And it's possible warmer effect has an effect as many have speculated. But who knows really. Too early to say. We'll know more by the end of summer i guess. If we survive that long.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
it's the financial aspect which i find scary. i've no idea how that will work out.

most of me still thinks that it's a bit like a jungian psychic/UFO invasion from the "alien" far east

thought these remarks i read were interesting with regards to wuhan:

"I'm neither a virologist nor an epidemiologist, but something that hasn't been mentioned in any reports I've read so far - and which I think may be affecting the mortality rate in both Hubei and in China as a whole - is that the Chinese are the world's largest consumers of tobacco.

The country is estimated to have 312 million adult smokers and is in the midst of a lung cancer epidemic on an unprecedented scale (Parascandola and Xaio, 2019). It accounts for nearly one-third of the world's smokers and 40 percent of the world's tobacco consumption. Over half of all Chinese men smoke.

I wonder whether, in the fullness of time, we might discover that the poor underlying pulmonary health of many Chinese patients, particularly men, meant that Covid-19 affected them more acutely than it did patients in other countries and regions where decades of effective public health education has made smoking much less prevalent.

This is not to say, of course, that we shouldn't be doing everything we can to prevent transmission or spread of this virus."


and this

"Not to mention the appalling air quality in many urban centres, in part due to Chinese factories using banned chemicals."

that might explain the high percentages coming out of china - but then italy's death toll is now higher they say...

Yeah, there's fucking horrific air pollution in their cities, so I expect an awful lot of people who don't smoke have got awful lung problems, before you add tobacco (and probably much harsher/more additive-laden tobacco than you get over here) on top of that.

One sobering thing I read is that there could be a big net drop in overall mortality rates in China, because of the sudden drop in emission levels due to factories closing down and the reduction in traffic.
 
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padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
you could ask the same question of any number of countries
I've been wondering this myself, and I agree with you that it's much too early to say with any certainty

but I'd guess things like: socioeconomic and possibly environmental factors, where countries are on the curve, random chance

and yeah many places (China, Iran, Russia, etc) probably cooking the books, now and/or going forward

Italy was the canary in the coal mine for (most of) the West in terms of response, has an old population, high % of smokers

it also took off first there in Lombardy which along with Campania are the mostly population parts of Italy by a pretty wide margin
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
India could be cooking the books
I've read that the authorities there have been extremely aggressive in terms of individual quarantine and case tracing

as they know that once they get to the point of widespread community transmission they will be completely fucked

150+ millions Indians don't have ready access to clean water, the first line of defense via handwashing etc

and they have some of the most densely populated urban slums on Earth, where social distancing will be virtually impossible

one imagines something like typhoid sweeping thru Dickensian slums
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
the potential misery if/when this truly breaks out in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

or Sub-Saharan Africa

on top of whatever else people there may be dealing with

and very likely the countries that normally send aid will have their own problems (besides China, maybe, and even they can't help everything I'd think)
 

pattycakes_

Can turn naughty
Bad enough imagining the shit hitting the fan here in europe, and the US. But those huge developing nations are going to be in a serious mess
 

catalog

Well-known member
I've read that the authorities there have been extremely aggressive in terms of individual quarantine and case tracing

as they know that once they get to the point of widespread community transmission they will be completely fucked

Yes, in bombay, they are marking people with the word ‘quarantine’ with indelible ink on their wrists. I guess its basic but effective. Eyebrow raising for the west.
 
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