version

Who loves ya, baby?
I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and think they'd run out, but he was a complete prick and every other member of staff was wearing them so I think he was just an arrogant twat who didn't feel he had to.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Oh dear... well good luck with that, hope it goes well.
Seems that a second spike is all but a certainty in the UK, in fact here everyone is so blase now it wouldn't surprise me... but UK hasn't even dealt with the first one yet so I dunno what the fuck they're thinking.
 

catalog

Well-known member
met a few friends recently for 'social distancing' chats in the park. one of them said to me that they never talk about the age profiles for the deaths, but it's ridiculously skewed towards over 60s. i know i already knew this, we all know this, but you lose sight... so over the last few days, i've seen loads of young people being really blase about everything. or maybe they're not, but i just think they are. eg saw a load of kids playing basketball and then we went wild swimming and loads were sunbathing together. and then my other mate said quietly about how he couldn't understand why people were so bothered about the care homes... 'they all wanna die in there anyway'
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
met a few friends recently for 'social distancing' chats in the park. one of them said to me that they never talk about the age profiles for the deaths, but it's ridiculously skewed towards over 60s. i know i already knew this, we all know this, but you lose sight... so over the last few days, i've seen loads of young people being really blase about everything. or maybe they're not, but i just think they are. eg saw a load of kids playing basketball and then we went wild swimming and loads were sunbathing together. and then my other mate said quietly about how he couldn't understand why people were so bothered about the care homes... 'they all wanna die in there anyway'
Obviously anyone who enters a care home only ever leaves one way, but I think an important fact that often gets missed is that there's a big difference between dying relatively peacefully and painlessly with your kids and maybe grandkids there to comfort you, and drowning in your own snot while not allowed to see anyone.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
They're bringing forward lockdown easing on monday. Still not fully open, no schools etc, but definitely too fast for my liking.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Chance of a random <50 yr old in the UK dying of COVID after kissing the next bystander in the street: c. 1 in 12,000,000:
1/1000 (community prevalence, ONS) x 1/2000 (<50 y.o. IFR, CDC) x 1/2 (probability kisser being already immune) x 1/3 (prob of the bystander being out and about if infected)
 

droid

Beast of Burden
That seems somewhat off to me. 1/2 probability of kisser being immune does not correlate at all with a maximum of 5-8% of the population being immune according to large scale European antibody studies.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
I'm basing that on recent papers claiming that roughly that proportion being already immune due to past exposure to other coronaviruses or [something else]

I speculated that it's the case beforehand as the peaks are otherwise 'too low' and it seems to fit incidence in closed communities who got hit (eg. Princess Diamond).

I'll dig up the papers again :D

The models refer to the 'susceptible' population which skirts this possibility entirely.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
Nearly everyone had had a cold, there's absolutely no evidence that that exposure to that or other coronavirus confers immunity to covid 19.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
Au contraire, mon frere: https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674(20)30610-3

"Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+T cells in40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2. "
Ah yes, apologies, I forgot about that. One single study that involved 20 subjects which indicates that previous exposure to some corona viruses, could possibly produce T Cells, which could, possibly have some immune effect against Covid 19, a result that has not yet been replicated anywhere else afaik.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Well, some degree of ready immunity would still better fit the oddly low figures (in comparison to the expectation that the thing will work its way through nigh-on everyone, chopping 1 in every 100-300) and does fit Farr's Law more closely:

In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/
 
Top