chava

Well-known member
Still pre-print, so take it with a grain of salt:


The jury's still out re: Sweden
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Yeah, but 100% of current Swedish cases are mild and the deaths have almost petered out entirely and as they have already made clear, the increase in cases is because they're testing more people.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

And Sweden is now in a great planning position as the picture hasn't been muddied by lockdown...It's quite incredible that we're not out of lockdown in the UK yet and already planning to get back into it, cos we have no definitive idea of how many more deaths we're 'due' (and also not much clue as to what sort of effect lockdown has, other than completely screwing the country in most other ways)

btw. Sweden's excess deaths are fewer than their COVID deaths.
 
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Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
I understand of course that there are different ways of making comparisons by using statistics, but it strikes me as splitting hairs to say the excess death toll is "only" 50,000 and not 60,000 when Germany has reported just 9,000 - OK, say that's an undercount and their excess death toll is really 13,000 or so - and their total population is about a quarter as big again as ours.
 

mixed_biscuits

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"And accounting for the yearly variations suggests there are 31,417 excess deaths so far in 2020 " - that's half the mediatised 65,000 or so.

Afaik Germany have been predominantly recording deaths-of, rather than -with; the NHS have recorded fewer than 1500 deaths-of here btw!
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
It's not that there are 'different ways', it's that Oxford take into account important factors that the ONS just ignores - not least that we had a mild winter and the late-onset influenza-like illness COVID-19 has killed many who would normally otherwise have died of standard flu beforehand.

These subtleties are not discussed in the media.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
...It's quite incredible that we're not out of lockdown in the UK yet and already planning to get back into it, cos we have no definitive idea of how many more deaths we're 'due' (and also not much clue as to what sort of effect lockdown has, other than completely screwing the country in most other ways)
It seems to me that the UK government fucked up by not starting the lockdown sooner, by not stopping several very large public events from going ahead, by then introducing a half-arsed semi-lockdown that allowed many employers to force their employees to come into work anyway, gave the public vague and contradictory advice, while releasing infected older patients to nursing homes and doing totally inadequate testing. And now it's the summer and everyone is bored out of their minds, and Cummings broke the law and still has his job, so why shouldn't we all pile onto the beach?

They fucked up not-having-a-lockdown, then they fucked up the lockdown, and they're fucking up the lifting of the lockdown.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
"And accounting for the yearly variations suggests there are 31,417 excess deaths so far in 2020 " - that's half the mediatised 65,000 or so.

Afaik Germany have been predominantly recording deaths-of, rather than -with; the NHS have recorded fewer than 1500 deaths-of here btw!
31,000 is less than the 44,000 who've *officially* died of the disease. Now surely you accept that some people will have died with/of the virus but without being diagnosed first, yes? Then how can that number be negative, let alone to the tune of well over 10,000 in magnitude?
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
This idea of an early lockdown that suppressed the virus is from the realm of the fantastical, not least because SAGE were not especially keen at any point. Lockdown-fans should note that it was the government who sent us into lockdown, not the science; basically you owe Boris a big one.

Even if the lockdown had been more rigorous for the general public, most of the transmission was in the already-locked-down environments of hospitals and care homes - there's no way their structure could have been changed in time. Oxford suggest reinstating the 'fever hospitals' of yore, which is a good idea for the future.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
31,000 is less than the 44,000 who've *officially* died of the disease. Now surely you accept that some people will have died with/of the virus but without being diagnosed first, yes? Then how can that number be negative, let alone to the tune of well over 10,000 in magnitude?
It's because of the COVID-withs.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
Eh? Nursing homes can hardly be called "locked down" when infected patients were being released back into them to mingle with uninfected residents and staff.

I can see I'm not going to win you over here, but it seems your general thrust is that a) things are actually pretty rosy and b) they'd have been no worse, and may even have been better, with no lockdown at all. To me, both of those assertions are demonstrably untrue.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
The excess deaths are some combination of:

a) COVID-ofs (=very few; almost all old)
b) COVID-withs dying early
c) COVID-withs dying mainly due to other things
d) COVID-withs dying late (having survived the mild winter)
e) COVID collateral: ppl being denied treatment
f) unknown (maybe we would have had an excess anyway!) -> Oxford point out that 85% of viral tests in the community are turning up 'unknown agents' rather than COVID, which appears to be unprecedented in the recent past.
g) spikes in known others

The deaths from category b) determine the current overall average or below-average death rate (on the 5-year average)...this helps to hide deaths from category e).

In the absence of collateral deaths, the excess deaths might reduce on a calendar-year basis going forward, depending how many of the b) people would have died this year anyway.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
I can see I'm not going to win you over here, but it seems your general thrust is that a) things are actually pretty rosy and b) they'd have been no worse, and may even have been better, with no lockdown at all. To me, both of those assertions are demonstrably untrue.
It's not demonstrably untrue that things would be worse without lockdown. UEA's comparative study of 14 European countries' responses indicated that lockdown made things worse, not better. Italy, Spain, Belgium locked down and they all did awfully.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
And it's already clear that the general fallout from putting the country into an induced coma will dwarf the effects of COVID in its gravity.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
It's not demonstrably untrue that things would be worse without lockdown. UEA's comparative study of 14 European countries' responses indicated that lockdown made things worse, not better. Italy, Spain, Belgium locked down and they all did awfully.
I thought everywhere in Europe had locked down except Sweden? Italy and Spain were hit very early on, before anyone really knew what this thing was - China and Iran not being models of transparency - while Belgium, as we've established, is almost certainly drastically overcounting.
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
The study looked at the relationship between the time of a measure being introduced and change in death rate after a two-week lag.

Shutting schools was the most effective measure, apparently. Mandatory mask wear introduction was associated with a worsening after initial improvement.

Lockdown did not serve Italy well as it forced multi-generational households together in closed spaces whilst depriving them of vitamin D (deficiency thereof meaning 10x risk of a serious case of COVID).

The antisun aspect of lockdown was especially wrong-headed: we were only let out to sunbathe once the govt science guy of the day conceded that the sun was better for you than the opposite.

Oxford said that the most effective measures were hand-washing and pre-lockdown distancing: there's no evidence of a great deal more improvement being made from lockdown...the deaths/day UK peak was attained before the 2-week lag after lockdown, after which it declined at a similar rate to most other countries, either lockdowners or Sweden, for instance (Sweden's death rate curve is geometrically similar to the UK's)
 
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