mixed_biscuits

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As my argument is that lockdown doesn't make much difference to spread, the best point of attack is finding/taking up effective treatments.
 
Whoever thinks they can police the M25 is fucking crazy man. I would love to have been there when that got pitched. I'm on it for hours a week with work it's the wild west mate. No chance.

110 mile long situational quarantine. You'd need an army. Love it.
 
There isn't the capability on the junctions though, unless you're talking huge upgrades to the infrastructure. ANPR is in place on the M25 itself for speed cameras in limited areas, but not on 3/4 of the junction roundabouts I don't think. Maybe at Thurrock where they do the insurance checks but that's it

If you can't track and trace 50 lads from a pub tracking 100k+ cars a day isn't going to happen

It's as if these articles have looked at what they can actually do in China etc and then just guessed they we could do it too. Tremendous.
 

WashYourHands

Well-known member
As my argument is that lockdown doesn't make much difference to spread, the best point of attack is finding/taking up effective treatments.
Sorry but I can’t take your first point with any degree of seriousness. Containment is not a cure, but I find the pathology of your reasoning stubborn at best. Going to have to email said ICU mate to register who can walk you through the clinical points A-Z on why lockdown was essential and weeks too late. The govt knew for months the shit was going to hit, Bojo missed stacks of critical meetings and now we are where we are.

There are too many areas of disagreement here. A good example was discharging elderly patients into care homes without testing, superspreaders bar none, which will prove a national disgrace. Said mate will also be able to give case studies where palliative care patients who wanted to die at home ended up infecting entire care teams, ie both day and night shifts. If you can comprehend that, good, but the fact you can’t concede one point throughout this entire thread is indicative of sheer belligerence on your part. You read like a Trump supporting conspiratorial obsessive sounds, so pls throw in a few !!! for good measure.

Liberty is only as strong as civic responsibility.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
Staff member
We can argue statistics and graphs until we're blue in the face, but the long and short of it is that contagious diseases spread through person-to-person contact, so if you drastically reduce the amount of contact each person has with other people, how can that possibly fail to slow the spread of a disease?

And once you've permanently slowed the rate of spread such that R<1 throughout a whole area (e.g. a country), then everyone with the disease will either get over it by themselves, get treated for it if a treatment exists, or in the worst case, die - and then the pandemic is over.
 

mixed_biscuits

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You can see that that is not what has happened tho': if lockdown is done early, the moment it is relaxed, the whole thing starts up again and you're back where you started, just some period of time down the line.

This is actually stated in the Imperial paper that prompted lockdown!

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission –will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) –given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


Remember that the original reason was to flatten the curve, not to change the area under it!

Furthermore, R drops below 1 after a certain period of time anyway: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-william-farrs-way-out-of-the-pandemic/
 
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mixed_biscuits

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Said mate will also be able to give case studies where palliative care patients who wanted to die at home ended up infecting entire care teams, ie both day and night shifts.
Shielding the vulnerable is a different matter to locking down a vast majority that is largely invulnerable.
 

mixed_biscuits

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The people whose life-saving treatments were cancelled or postponed are more vulnerable than a random healthy <50 year old with a 1/2000 IFR should they develop Covid.
 

WashYourHands

Well-known member
Shielding the vulnerable is a different matter to locking down a vast majority that is largely invulnerable.
@mixed_biscuits That right there is the capstone to the gaps of logic in you argument if you factor in the 40+ year old demographics and relationship to symptom complications, rising upwards with 50+. As Tea states, that’s a lot of people, all apparently expendable.

I’d also like to point out that small matter of complications - blood clots and everything they bring, irreversible lung tissue damage etc. Get a grip mate, with all due respect. For something that has the potential to run on for the next few years, a disease where the complications themselves are fucked up enough and will require long term study, I’d check myself a tad. Anyway, I’ve got work to do but before that these jpgs seem to tally with the crux of your arguments if you transfer masks and queening for your take on lockdown
 

Attachments

mixed_biscuits

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Yeah, but lockdown does not prevent the virus from spreading, as the paper that prompted it says; it doesn't do what you want it to do!
 

luka

Well-known member
Staff member
washyourhands has become sucked into the biscuit vortex. he doesn;t realise yet that there's no escape. you keep going round and round in circles of ever decreasing circumference, faster and faster and faster.
 

mixed_biscuits

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The weird double-hump that the USA's deathrate curve has is because the early lockdown states have had to relax the measure, whereupon the virus has spread. The US is experiencing what Ferguson's paper said would take place.

The UK's curve is pretty much identical to Sweden's as our peak occurred before the lockdown could have had an effect...which is good news, as it means that we won't get a second hump involving this round of strains.

Prediction: the US won't exceed 200,000 deaths by 2021.
 
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I kind of agree with the idea that herd immunity of sorts is on its way tbh- certainly in London & Liverpool anyway, they were the first exposed on a mass scale. Whether that's a good thing or not is debatable, vast majority of the country got nowhere near it. That's why you're seeing huge spikes as the country opens up again but some other places seem a lot less effected I guess

I admire biscuits' unshakable belief in all this personally, even if the logistics of it need some work
 
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