Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[IdleRich]

Prediction: the US won't exceed 200,000 deaths by 2021.

Ah this is interesting at least. A direct and simple prediction that can either be wrong or right. As long as you recognise worldometer or whatever... I can see a scenario where that ticks over 200k and then you say "Ah but you have to divide that number by 17" or something. But no that's unworthy of me.
So the US has about 160k deaths apparently at the moment. In April or May or whatever they were getting about 2k deaths a day, it went right down to about 300 but has now gone back up to almost 1.5k a day and seems to still be upwardly trending. So unless something changes it feels as though they will hit 200k in early September.
So... a bold statement, in that any prediction that you can be held to is bold. But also it predicts (another, admittedly) dramatic drop-off in US daily deaths. And what you're saying (just to be clear) is that it will drop off, not because of any particular action from the government or the states or whatever but just because that is how this spread behaves?
Brave anyway, let's see.

 

[Mr. Tea]

In Sweden, sixty under-50s died with/from Covid; how many would have been saved had they locked down?

And how many people have theoretically "recovered", but actually have cardiac, pneumatic, hepatic or neurological conditions that could affect them for the rest of their lives?

 

[mixed_biscuits]

And how many people have theoretically "recovered", but actually have cardiac, pneumatic, hepatic or neurological conditions that could affect them for the rest of their lives?

Well, how much of that would have been prevented by lockdown? Presumably it would be proportionate to the saved deaths, if there would be any.

 

[luka]

once you start seeing them, as Peter Hitchens does, as muzzles, you can't stop seeing it.

 

[luka]

Hannibal Lecter muzzles. it's started freaking me out.

 

[luka]

it's an effective piece of propaganda language in that sense. really great.

 

[chava]

The weird double-hump that the USA's deathrate curve has is because the early lockdown states have had to relax the measure, whereupon the virus has spread. The US is experiencing what Ferguson's paper said would take place.

The UK's curve is pretty much identical to Sweden's as our peak occurred before the lockdown could have had an effect...which is good news, as it means that we won't get a second hump involving this round of strains.

Prediction: the US won't exceed 200,000 deaths by 2021.

Presumably this is the best source for predictions
Has been ~correct so far https://covid19-projections.com/

 

[Mr. Tea]

Prediction: the US won't exceed 200,000 deaths by 2021.

I really hope you haven't placed any bets on that.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[IdleRich]

Presumably this is the best source for predictions
Has been ~correct so far https://covid19-projections.com/

So predicting 200k in October?

 

[WashYourHands]

 

[luka]

reality is fake

 

[WashYourHands]

but who is the faker? the paste-maker?

 

[luka]

i think we all have to acknowledge how much that last interview looked like familair comedy formats we became accustomed to in the 00s. and we need to ask ourselves why that is the case.

 

[luka]

i don't necessarily think it is scripted front to back. but we have to think seriously about why it looks that way.

 

[WashYourHands]

herd immunity in London?

 

[luka]

it's not accidental. if you think it's accidental you are too stupid to talk to. so why does it look that way?

 

[luka]

herd immunity in London?

if you act as if it is you will get sick. no one knows what is going on. we take the precautions we consider appropriate. we know nothing.

 

[luka]

we have to think about what is happening. broadly speaking it is about the feedback loop between reality and fiction.

 

[WashYourHands]

if you act as if it is you will get sick. no one knows what is going on. we take the precautions we consider appropriate. we know nothing.

just a throw away daft comment, nothing personal, i was mimicking mixed biscuits code now fully integrated

 

[luka]

if you were to ask a naif, like my dear friend oliver craner, they would tell you this is reality. they simply lack self awareness. but nothing could be further from the truth.