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Leo

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What are the odds that things will never return to the way they were before COVID? A future of never-ending fits and starts, ebbs and flows, infection peaks and valleys. The impact of permanent social distancing, the way we form and maintain relationships. A culling of seniors, inexperienced youth in charge.
 

Leo

Well-known member
I can see certain new rituals carrying on: more frequent hand washing, disappearance of handshakes. restaurants here used to cram in as many tables in as possible, yours would be two inches away from those on either side. if that's done for, lots of restaurants won't be able to stay in business, or will have to charge a lot more to make up for the volume.
 
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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
NZ won't flare up all of a sudden cos prevalence is almost zero but has much latent potential for spread, as 99% of those susceptible have not yet been reached.
The prevalence of covid-19 antibodies in England is 6.3%. Meaning 94% of us haven't had it. That's not much different from 99%, isn't it? I don't know why you keep insisting that we're on the verge of "herd immunity", or even on the verge of being on the verge of it, or that we're in a significantly better position than New Zealand is on account of having had a death rate 200 times higher - and, presumably, a correspondingly higher rate of people who are going to suffer lifelong health problems.

The minimum antibody prevalence required for herd immunity is 70%. Assuming no change in the lethality of the virus, you're looking at over half a million dead just using the obviously conservative official death toll of 46,500 - or 700,000 dead using the more realistic excess death toll of 63,000. More worrying still is the multiple millions who are going to be left with chronic fatigue, lung problems, cognitive impairment and so on, which may last for years and perhaps the rest of their lives. And this is in no way alarmist, since that's exactly what is seen with SARS-CoV-1, which is a very similar virus.

And it seems perverse in the extreme to play down these long-term health effects, when they're often severe and are by now quite well documented, while inventing "unknown long-term effects" of the vaccine, given that the vaccine is a greatly weakened version of the virus it's intended to protect you against, and didn't cause any bad effects in over 500 test volunteers.
 

mixed_biscuits

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As for the vaccine, if it's a weakened version of a virus that has unknown long-term effects, one should expect attenuated versions of the same
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
The lasting effects are caused by organ damage. Organ damage is being seen in people who've been made severely ill by the virus. The vaccine doesn't make you severely ill, so there's no reason to think it's causing organ damage.

It's not that complicated!
 

mixed_biscuits

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Presumably the polio vaccine went through long enough trials to shorten the odds of unforeseen side effects de longue duree.

I thought you were saying that everyone was at risk of long Covid damage?
 

mixed_biscuits

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Indulge me. What have I written that's incorrect?

Herd immunity clearly doesn't require 70% having antibodies (as otherwise Sweden's cases and deaths wouldn't have dwindled away) and antibody tests don't capture everyone who is immune.

'no change in the lethality' - there would be change in this as the most susceptible are affected earliest.

The basic excess deaths measure is of limited use (not least as we're currently on negative weekly excess deaths!):
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/thoughts-on-estimating-excess-mortality-from-covid-19/
 

mixed_biscuits

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Looks like Westerners can express concerns about the Russian vaccine without being called anti-vaxxers. #doublestandards #PUTitINme #trustovertest
 

Leo

Well-known member
umm...my attempts at humor were intended to highlight the obvious fact that there is little trust in the Russian vaccine because it's been rushed through, with inadequate testing and clinical trials. that's very different from being anti-vax.
 
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mixed_biscuits

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You can never be too safe when it comes to vaccine testing: stay safe, refuse vaccines.

It's not our job to judge the scientists. Otherwise, that would make *us* scientists - and who would judge us...even more scientists? #trustovertest

How long would we have to wait to be sure that there aren't long-term side effects...to be 100% sure, until death...but would we need the vaccine if already dead? I'm not so sure.

Russian medical trials are quicker because they fit the schedules to their shorter life expectancies.
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
Couldn't find a better thread for this question, and didn't think it was worth its own.

Do we think that covid will, to whatever extent, enable future architectural projects to be more experimental and less dominated by function? Now that many of us, namely many of our businesses, are understanding that centralized locations aren't as necessary as we've been supposing them to be, perhaps that enabled architecture to pursue other ends than mere functionality.

Not sure how to express this more clearly. It seems like the way buildings are built are, primarily, in the interest of optimizing functionality, if even at the cost of psychogeographical or affective or experimental ends. Could these ends be foregrounded a bit, now that covid has shown that we need not orient architecture purely around function? I still get the sense that my point isn't getting across, but we'll see.
 
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