So every one of these diagnoses is false, you're clever enough to have spotted it and it hasn't occurred to a single person who does this stuff for a living? Seems legit.45 cycles of PCR testing means any RNA traces are replicated 2⁴⁵ times to get a result. Seems legit.
Two days early.USA's official death toll stands at 182,400 as of now. With an averaged daily toll of 965, that gives us ~19 days till the magic number of 200,000 is reached. Given that the death rate is very slowly decreasing, and may be down to 900/day within a couple of weeks, I'm prepared to push the predicted date of what I'm calling "M-Day" out to September 18.
And probably never mention the subject again as long as he, or she, should live.I thought that it wouldn't be until next year though? Whoever (surely not the same person who said that his friends believe all his theories cos the predictions are so accurate?) said that should probably apologise, re-think his or her model and reverse all previous statements on the topic.
And just generally be really embarrassed.
Or not...Ah this is interesting at least. A direct and simple prediction that can either be wrong or right. As long as you recognise worldometer or whatever... I can see a scenario where that ticks over 200k and then you say "Ah but you have to divide that number by 17" or something. But no that's unworthy of me.
Excess deaths in the USA were over 240,000 for less than six months in the spring and summer.Got to wait for the definitive count as I dare say it will be recounted downwards like ours.