mixed_biscuits
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No, it doesn't; this 'wave' term is not even a scientific one.
You do realise that the first peak of cases you've got there was limited by testing capacity?
Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)
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No, it doesn't; this 'wave' term is not even a scientific one.
You do realise that the first peak of cases you've got there was limited by testing capacity?
mixed_biscuits
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Who let you post?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
What's your objection to it? Say spike, or peak, or something else, if you like. It doesn't matter.
Here's an article in the generally fairly scientific Lancet talking explicitly about "waves of infection": https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30845-X/fulltext
Of course. But make that first wave two, three, four or however many times higher in your mind's eye. Doesn't change the fact of an initial wave, followed by a reduction, followed by another large wave.
mixed_biscuits
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It's because Sweden is the nearest country that followed conventional epidemic policy and didn't lock down.
The UK was going to do the same but changed its mind at the eleventh hour.
The UK was going to do the same but changed its mind at the eleventh hour.
mixed_biscuits
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mixed_biscuits
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'Spike' or 'peak' is preferable as 'wave' suggests an inevitably recurrent process; most pandemics do not behave like that.
slackk
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I could see how I could be perceived as disingenuous here but I am being sincere- Sweden to me seems like a buzzword more than anything. Even my mum is into it- "I hope Sweden was right". But it's a different topography, culture, society.
But what are we rooting for here, this abstract concept of "freedom" doesn't necessarily mean much to me if people are copping it left right and centre. So the desire seems- to me- born of a desire to just allow people to get on with their shit, which is cool, I understand that.
Probably agree with it tbh, I hate lockdown and think if countries spent more time on real risk assessments instead of soundbites from incompetent politicians we'd be flying.
But the constant Swedish evangelism to me just distracts from your day to day shit personally. It's quite obvious that the virus is deeply contagious and if we were to let it run unfettered it's going to kill off elderly relatives, cool people with bad lungs, glandular issues etc. Sweden's second wave proves it's flawed, otherwise you wouldn't get this huge second spike. It should have been all at once or the herd idea is flawed.
So, if you're in a situation where you want to live like Sweden but the Swedish model is clearly a bit flawed too.
So, where are the anti-lockdown RAMS
But what are we rooting for here, this abstract concept of "freedom" doesn't necessarily mean much to me if people are copping it left right and centre. So the desire seems- to me- born of a desire to just allow people to get on with their shit, which is cool, I understand that.
Probably agree with it tbh, I hate lockdown and think if countries spent more time on real risk assessments instead of soundbites from incompetent politicians we'd be flying.
But the constant Swedish evangelism to me just distracts from your day to day shit personally. It's quite obvious that the virus is deeply contagious and if we were to let it run unfettered it's going to kill off elderly relatives, cool people with bad lungs, glandular issues etc. Sweden's second wave proves it's flawed, otherwise you wouldn't get this huge second spike. It should have been all at once or the herd idea is flawed.
So, if you're in a situation where you want to live like Sweden but the Swedish model is clearly a bit flawed too.
So, where are the anti-lockdown RAMS
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Well what happens if you extend the analysis that gives the grey lines into the right-hand part of the plot? As it stands this is just disingenuous, because it implies that after a certain point there are no undiagnosed cases.
mixed_biscuits
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mixed_biscuits
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Common sense would dictate that we won't get the same size of peak again (unless reinfection) given reasonably free conditions during the first peak.
slackk
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Hmm this doesnt have much to do with Sweden though does it, its a graph of possible UK cases.
My point isn't to do with epidemiologist modelling- though it is interesting that you bemoan it given that you want us to follow "conventional epidemic policy" - its that regardless of modelling, Sweden is going through an extraordinary spike the same time as the rest of Europe despite the pursuit of herd immunity. So, to me, the model has failed, it has ignored punditry narrative.
So- who are the people providing solutions, where are the risk assessed plan of works that get through a European winter without lockdown? This is the part that I can't see anyone providing.
I only dip in and out of these arguments- I have too much work on tbh- but it just seems like a lot of people shout Sweden down a well and run away.
Why does no-one on this side of the argument talk about Taiwan or S. Korea etc. Its just bizarre how Sweden is the answer to everything when it's not even a cool place to go for a weekend really and they've all got covid again anyway
WashYourHands
Cat Malogen
mixed_biscuits
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I'm saying that extraordinary measures are being taken based on mistaken assumptions (as in that graph); Sweden made more sensible assumptions and did ok.
You need to make a more precise numerical claim to assert equivalence here. Note that Sweden's deaths are still low.
Lockdown is not necessary in the UK, for instance - the case-rate increase was decreasing before lockdown.
Outcomes in the Far East are so out of whack with the West that some sort of natural immunity must be involved.
mixed_biscuits
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mixed_biscuits
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