wild greens

Well-known member
This is what I'm on about from earlier. Front page of the guardian site- 1 in 5 people in England have had Covid. As many as 12 million. There is no disputing voice to this idea, its a fact as far as the paper is concerned. An estimate

Cites Edge Health's projection software as the source. Most recent estimate is here, 8m

The last date currently used for each data source: PHE cases 04/01/21; ONS infection survey 22/11/20; hospitalisations 04/01/21; deaths 25/12/20.

Guardian says

The analysis, by Edge Health, reveals that the true number of coronavirus infections in England could be as high as 12.4 million, equivalent to 22% of the population, as of 3 January.

The model estimates the number of cases in an areas by comparing its number of deaths against an estimated infection fatality rate. It assumes a three-week lag between recorded cases and any associated deaths.

So where does the guardian get 12m from, or 1 in 5 for that matter. Its just so strange to me that this is accepted as fact
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Could get similar numbers by working backwards from deaths using the infection fatality rate estimate.

eg. 70,000 deaths x 200 (from 0.5% IFR) = 14 million infections
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
FDA changes bonkers testing guidelines to something far more sensible; recorded cases will plummet as a result.

Any coincidence with a change in national leadership entirely coincidental.

1610316281260.png
 

wild greens

Well-known member
Could get similar numbers by working backwards from deaths using the infection fatality rate estimate.

eg. 70,000 deaths x 200 (from 0.5% IFR) = 14 million infections

I thought I read on here that those numbers were massively inflated. 70k?! Must have misread

I still think these articles are just winging it
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Say that half of those infected *know* they've been infected, that's more than 5 million people correctly assuming they're as good as immune and wondering why they have to pay heed to restrictions.
 

Leo

Well-known member
I thought today maybe I dont care if we have to spend the whole year locked down so long as I can go out on my bicycle and I have enough vegetables to eat.

isn't it weird that the concept of a social life has totally evaporated? it's not like we were socialites or anything but we'd go out to dinner with friends at least a few times a month, made a point of social activities like seeing new museum or gallery shows, etc. nothing compared to really sociable people, but still. and all of that interest, focus and energy has fallen by the wayside. and it kind of sucked back in the summer, but no longer a top-of-mind concern. that's nuts.
 
Top