Ward away satanists
The last date currently used for each data source: PHE cases 04/01/21; ONS infection survey 22/11/20; hospitalisations 04/01/21; deaths 25/12/20.
The analysis, by Edge Health, reveals that the true number of coronavirus infections in England could be as high as 12.4 million, equivalent to 22% of the population, as of 3 January.
The model estimates the number of cases in an areas by comparing its number of deaths against an estimated infection fatality rate. It assumes a three-week lag between recorded cases and any associated deaths.
Could get similar numbers by working backwards from deaths using the infection fatality rate estimate.
eg. 70,000 deaths x 200 (from 0.5% IFR) = 14 million infections
I thought today maybe I dont care if we have to spend the whole year locked down so long as I can go out on my bicycle and I have enough vegetables to eat.