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mixed_biscuits

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When you prevent people from seeing their loved ones and earning a living, it's no longer just about covid.

NZ and Aus will not be giving up on the lockdowns for a while yet as that would mean stepping down from an eradication aim that not even wholesale vaccination would change.
 

Leo

Well-known member
When you prevent people from seeing their loved ones and earning a living, it's no longer just about covid.

not my point, at all. my point is the virus doesn't give a shit if it's a bank holiday or I haven't seen my old auntie a long time.
 

mixed_biscuits

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not my point, at all. my point is the virus doesn't give a shit if it's a bank holiday or I haven't seen my old auntie a long time.
Some things are more important than trying to hide away from the virus 24-7 on the off-chance it will nail you.
 

mixed_biscuits

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Complacently smug self-stabbers eagerly closing off alternatives for the hesitant, not realising that their vaxxed loved ones could also be nailed in breakthrough cases and that the chance of death given presentation to hospital is roughly equal, whether jabbed or not
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Pretty straightforward demolition of the biscuits fallacy:

The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old. This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalised with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalisation (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.

However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old. Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from COVID than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
@mixed_biscuits has basically constructed an argument a bit like "Most people who die in a car accident were wearing a seatbelt, therefore you shouldn't wear a seatbelt because they make you more likely to die."
 
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