padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Didn't the Dow recently have it's biggest one-day fall since 1929?
by points, yes. by % the largest since Black Monday 1987, which is still the all-time record. the worst day of 1929 comes in 3rd.

the last 3 weeks have seen 3 of the Dow's largest over one-day % losses and 2 of its largest ever one-day % gains.

the all-time 20 on both sides are pretty interesting lists, actually

biggest gains is almost all the Great Depression, with 2 from this last month and another 2 from 2008, and another from 1987

biggest losses has a lot of Great Depression, as well as now, but it's significantly more spread out and has a bunch of one-offs

i.e. 1987 Black Monday, the first trading day after 9/11, the day after Germany announced during WWI it would engage in unrestricted submarine warfare
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
there's almost always a huge recovery day after a massive loss, but you can also see the effect of prolonged extremely high volatility

which is what we have now, wild uncertainty as no one knows how to price in both the short and longer-term effects of pandemic
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
right? I understand the general idea of options but idk its ins and outs, let alone the way you would I'm sure

I guess if you're just betting on volatility, sure - but who the fuck is taking the other side of that trade right now?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
then again, there were people continuing to buy subprime CDOs long after it should've been 100% clear that they were worthless trash, so who knows
 

Leo

Well-known member
the dow was well overheated, up around 30% since trump came into office, which is nuts because so much of that was like a sugar high, temporarily pumped up by tax cuts. there's definitely going to be a big correction and no one knows where the bottom really is, but it's also a bit misleading to compare everything to the 29,551 peak in feb.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
it's also a bit misleading to compare everything to the 29,551 peak in feb.
absolutely. I think virtually everyone who pays any attention was expecting a significant correction at some point, the only question was when and how much.

obviously people weren't expecting this, though
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
or losing a lot of money, depending on their bets
Of course. But you know how in general they report "markets rising" and think everyone is happy? Well all I mean is "volatility rising" is the equivalent of that for options traders. If you are holding options you will make money when the market moves, if you are short options then you will lose.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
could you link up source/sources for this? would be interested to read. or is it in that video somewhere (skimmed through, couldn't find if so)?
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season. Changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Hey yeah I saw the message... I've written you a garbled reply. But in short, you're not wrong at all and what I said was so kinda vague and needs so much qualifying to be true it was hardly worth saying. That's sort of why I compared it to things like when we watched Bloomberg tv in the office and they said "markets going up, it's a good day for you" and basically that's only true for certain strategies, though I suppose that includes the simplest strategy of just buying some stocks and hoping they go up. And in the same way, just having some options and hoping the market moves around is the simplest option strategy and will be rewarded now.
Hmm that's actually better than what I said in the email I puzzled out...
 

version

Who loves ya, baby?
"Trump says he won’t comply with key transparency measures in the coronavirus stimulus bill - The administration says it won’t provide documentation for audits into $500 billion in corporate bailout funds."
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Yeah I saw this and just couldn't face reading it properly. But can he ignore the rules of a bill that he signed? How?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I would like to read this conversation
it's not actually that interesting tbh

mostly I was thinking about people buying options now, whereas Rich was mainly talking about traders who are/were holding options bought prior to this volatility

so we were both saying true things. it is probably difficult to find anyone rn on the other side of that trade (tho it depends on the particular market).

but anyone who was net long on volatility holding options bought from anytime before, say, early February or so, is probably doing very well.
 

luka

Well-known member
Staff member
So you three all, uh, play the market? Is it fun? Or you just do it for the money?
 
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