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IdleRich

IdleRich
Looking like Florida is soon gonna be the US epicentre. It seems that the US is still getting, what, 20k plus new infections per day. Is it past its peak at all there?
 

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Looking like Florida is soon gonna be the US epicentre. It seems that the US is still getting, what, 20k plus new infections per day. Is it past its peak at all there?

The US overall death rate continues to decrease steadily and the number of cases doesn't matter if they aren't serious (the most susceptible are hit hard at the start, creating the initial sharp increase in deaths). The media has 50 states from which to pick a spike - which could just be statistical noise or chance - and whip up a scare story. If the death rate starts increasing then maybe a second wave becomes plausible, but there's no way it's going to match the first even so.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I'm not totally convinced cos it seems to be pretty much accepted that Florida and a number of other states are deliberately undercounting their deaths. So if Florida is the one that is having the highest rise in cases and is lying most about their deaths I suspect that things are worse than we are being told. Of course one state is gonna be higher than others, it does seem a bit of a coincidence though that it is the one that has been playing politics the most with this, opened early against advice and so on.
Also, there is a lot of room between "not dead" and "not serious" - a survivor with permanent lung damage who has spent weeks in bed would probably not be happy being told they'd not been a serious case.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
And yeah maybe the most susceptible are hit first... but the disease was more prevalent in NY and Cali at first, so the most susceptible being hit first in Florida would presumably come later..
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Another record number of cases in Florida today... it certainly seems to be that even if as a country the US is past its peak, there is at least one area which has not yet reached its own local peak.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
From Vietnam (I believe the largest country with no deaths attributed to C19)
A paper on Vietnam’s success in suppressing Covid-19 using strict quarantining and widespread testing has been penned by experts including Vietnamese officials and staff from Oxford University’s clinical research unit in Ho Chi Minh City.

They list lessons which are applicable to other states, including:

  • Investment in public health infrastructure.
  • Early action, including border closures.
  • Thorough contact tracing.
  • Quarantines based on possible exposure, rather than symptoms only.
  • Clear communication with a consistent narrative.
  • A strong whole-of-society approach engaging multi sectorial stakeholders.
Or in other words, exactly the opposite of what the UK government did.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
And here we go again....
Portugal’s Prime Minister Antonio Costa has said some coronavirus restrictions would be reimposed in the capital Lisbon to help control outbreaks from the pandemic.
Costa said measures to be introduced from Tuesday included a restriction on gatherings of more than 10 people and orders for cafes and shops to close at 8pm in the capital.
“Certain measures will be applied to the capital region,” the premier said a press conference after meeting with mayors of several municipalities.
According to official data compiled by local media, between May 21 and June 21, Portugal recorded 9,221 new cases of COVID-19 with most cases detected in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley regions.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
So US more than 35k new cases today. Above MB was arguing that, although the new cases are increasing, they are not serious cases and the mortality rate is decreasing. Seven states saw record numbers of hospitalisations today though - so even if the new (not today's obviously but presumably in the last week or two) cases are not fatal they are still serious. I don't the US improving at this rate... EU is banning US citizens from travelling I understand (or not un-banning them), Trump is holding more fucking rallies, there seems to be no political will to make difficult decisions to actually get it done. And UK is basically the same, 280 died today apparently although they are saying it's an adjusted figure... as they do every time they don't like it.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
We need to get away from the idea that when you catch this bug, either you peg it or you're eventually fine. A huge number of people who've "recovered" have been left with major health problems that are going to affect them for the rest of their lives (lives which may also be considerably shorter than they would otherwise have been).
 

chava

Well-known member
From Vietnam (I believe the largest country with no deaths attributed to C19)

Or in other words, exactly the opposite of what the UK government did.

Also: Hacking the Chinese CDC in early january and knowing that something was up
 

droid

Well-known member
62% of workers in that German meatpacking plant caught the virus. How can this happen if 70% or so of the population have some kind of immunity due to previous exposure to other corona viruses?

Deaths in the US and other places are going to start rising again now. I think the 2nd wave is gonna be much worse.

Masks seem to be the best option for anyone wanting to get out of lockdown quickly. I saw a study yesterday with correlations between early national mask wearing and huge decreases in deaths. I cant comprehend the stupidity of refusals to mandate them.
 

Leo

Well-known member
in some parts of this country, not wearing is a political statement, equivalent of open-carry. got nothing to do with safety of self or others, a matter of principle. "live free or die", or in this case maybe both.
 

droid

Well-known member
Sure, but at least some US states and business are requiring people to wear them. Its just suggestion here.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
This thing in Portugal where they've tightened the rules slightly... it seems to me that it will make very little practical difference, I read it as them saying "Hey stop taking the piss or we go back to lockdown - this is your warning" - just like a demonstration that they do have the political will to do it in short.
 
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