George Floyd
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
could well be is probably an exaggeration, but it's within the realm of conceivability, which is very much bad enough
I do think people tend to forget since our politics have been relatively stable for so long that the republic has seen a fair deal. it has some resilience.
the long hot summers of the 60s, for example
it's perfect storm though, the racial/police tension that has been boiling forever with COVID and economic fallout, and Trump
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's hard to be too surprised by this for anyone who's paid attention to the last 10 or so years, I feel like
Oakland after Oscar Grant, Baltimore after Freddie Gray, Chicago after Laquan McDonald. Michael Brown's shooting feels like a turning point.
Chicago rn is on curfew, the National Guard is out, public transportation is suspended outside work hours
idk the ins + outs of a rightwing strategia della tensione but as Droid said I'm sure it exists
I was around for the latter part of the anti-globalization stuff in the early 00s and I think that's when cops really started developing provocateur tactics
the U.S. doesn't have a street-fighting protest tradition comparable to Europe, largely due I think to much harsher laws and law enforcement
and to the extent it did, it mostly skipped a generation between the 60s and the 90s
I have a terrible feeling we're heading for our very own Tlateloco if not worse, some incident where cops/military kill a few hundred people
Oakland after Oscar Grant, Baltimore after Freddie Gray, Chicago after Laquan McDonald. Michael Brown's shooting feels like a turning point.
Chicago rn is on curfew, the National Guard is out, public transportation is suspended outside work hours
idk the ins + outs of a rightwing strategia della tensione but as Droid said I'm sure it exists
I was around for the latter part of the anti-globalization stuff in the early 00s and I think that's when cops really started developing provocateur tactics
the U.S. doesn't have a street-fighting protest tradition comparable to Europe, largely due I think to much harsher laws and law enforcement
and to the extent it did, it mostly skipped a generation between the 60s and the 90s
I have a terrible feeling we're heading for our very own Tlateloco if not worse, some incident where cops/military kill a few hundred people
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
or sure, the excuse for a dictatorship. which is not something I realistically thought until really, this week.
one extremely strange detail is that the stock market has been doing quite well for the last 2 months
further evidence that it no longer functions as a barometer of the American economy. I've seen suggested that it's main purpose now is wealth retention via stock buybacks.
that doesn't really have anything to directly do with this I guess, but it feels somehow significant. we'll see how it goes tomorrow now that Trump has threatened to send in troops.
one extremely strange detail is that the stock market has been doing quite well for the last 2 months
further evidence that it no longer functions as a barometer of the American economy. I've seen suggested that it's main purpose now is wealth retention via stock buybacks.
that doesn't really have anything to directly do with this I guess, but it feels somehow significant. we'll see how it goes tomorrow now that Trump has threatened to send in troops.
yyaldrin
in je ogen waait de wind
i am puzzled by the stock market. it's so weird. how can everybody be unemployed and stocks still booming? happen to have any articles on this topic?
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
not at hand, but there's a few possibilities in play, which I understand to varying degrees
1 - the Fed pumped over $1 trillion into the markets to stave off financial meltdown and at the same time, bond yields dropped like a rock, so there was nowhere besides stocks for investors to go.
2 - the market is being dragged up by the tech giants - FB, Amazon, Google, Apple - all of whom are or stand to do well out of COVID, and all of whom have seen their stock steadily rise since the market bottomed out the middle of March
3 - the stock market has increasingly little correlation with the actual American economy. there are only about half as many publicly traded companies as there were 20 years ago. partly due to mergers, but mainly due to the meteoric rise of private equity in those same 20 years. possibly the rise of algorithm-driven high-frequency trading has also served to disconnect the market from reality (this is where I'm on the shakiest limb, idk anything about how HFT actually works)
4 - no one actually knows anything
The George Floyd protests are relatively new information compared to COVID, so markets could very well plunge this week
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
also, it's a sad truth that businesses hit hardest by COVID have been not giant corporations, but small businesses, which the stock market doesn't reflect
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's hard to imagine things being this bad without the last 2 months of lockdown, economic devastation, etc
but it's a bill that was always going to be called to account. anyone half-paying attention could name without having to look them up 10-15 high profile killings of black people by cops in the last few years alone. I was working downtown here during the Lacquan McDonald protests. That was about as live as I've seen a protest in this country, before this. why this should surprise anyone, I couldn't imagine.
but it's a bill that was always going to be called to account. anyone half-paying attention could name without having to look them up 10-15 high profile killings of black people by cops in the last few years alone. I was working downtown here during the Lacquan McDonald protests. That was about as live as I've seen a protest in this country, before this. why this should surprise anyone, I couldn't imagine.
yyaldrin
in je ogen waait de wind
and i feel that that should have a huge impact, also given the fact that we are living in a debt-intangled-web of everybody owes money to everybody. how are people going to pay their mortgages, how are people to pay of their debts? my intuition says this will disrupt the debt-pyramid and start a domino effect.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I don't think anyone really knows for sure - the market continues to do well, people try to figure out why that is
one thing is that unlike the financial crisis, COVID is exogenous to economy itself, which is perhaps influencing how investors envision recovery. the market is about perception of future value. the VIX (aka the fear index) peaked in mid-March and has steadily dropped since.
intuitively/by my own observation I think there's something in the idea that relation of the market to the actual economy has been in decline for a long time and these crises are simply making that fact obvious
one thing is that unlike the financial crisis, COVID is exogenous to economy itself, which is perhaps influencing how investors envision recovery. the market is about perception of future value. the VIX (aka the fear index) peaked in mid-March and has steadily dropped since.
intuitively/by my own observation I think there's something in the idea that relation of the market to the actual economy has been in decline for a long time and these crises are simply making that fact obvious
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
as far as interrelated debt, that's definitely beyond my knowledge
obviously individual debt is a huge concern, which is why many governments instituted mortgage freezes etc
but I couldn't begin to tell you how consumer debt relates to corporate debt, or how exactly the later relates to the market
obviously individual debt is a huge concern, which is why many governments instituted mortgage freezes etc
but I couldn't begin to tell you how consumer debt relates to corporate debt, or how exactly the later relates to the market
woops
is not like other people
...except on the cover of a cheapo vhs
droid
Well-known member
Im hoping otherwise, but this looks to me like it could be heading for day of the rope territory. We've already had death squads on the streets targeting BLM. Only a little push and its all out war on leftists and minorities. US activists I know who know their shit are deleting their social media accounts.
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Leo
Well-known member
the other element is the large get larger. mega-corps are increasingly dominant in corporate America, survival of the fittest as they gobble up weaker competitors. COVID has and will continue to thin the ranks of competition: with sales down drastically due to lockdown, the # 4, 5, 6, 7 largest companies in a sector find themselves too weak financially and vulnerable to being acquired by the #1, 2, 3 largest who have more capital and can weather the downturn. money managers who are invest in those mega-corps see this time, rightly or wrongly, as a thinning of the herd that they will ultimately benefit from.
but it's all speculation, the thing the dow hates the most is uncertainly, and we've got that in boat loads right now. the markets are super volatile nowadays, in April was down about 10,000 points from the historic high (in late February) and has since regained about 70% of that drop. wouldn't be surprising to see another huge drop as uncertainty continues. trump and GOP also generally viewed as pro-deregulation/pro-business, so a Biden win could also set things off again (even though he's far from a progressive).
IdleRich
IdleRich
I wouldn't claim to know more about than anyone else (my job when I worked in that was never about taking directional bets - purely about identifying similarities and then arbitraging them) but the stock market looks totally "wrong" to me if that concept can be applied here. Surely a crash is coming.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it feels like that, all the evidence says it should, and yet - it keeps not happening
I thought this weekend would do do it, but if you look at the history, it turns out that protests ("social unrest") basically don't impact the stock market, unless they become so severe that society is actually collapsing (which may be happening, we don't know yet). if you look around, financial analysts are - openly, at least - more worried about the protests spreading COVID than in and of themselves, in terms of the market.
one thing I think could very will trigger another crash or at least sharp downturn is sustained unemployment numbers. the lockdown-related numbers so far have been horrific but also expected, and so basically priced in.
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WashYourHands
Cat Malogen
2nd wave, more unemployment, trigger happy militias, confused theatres of protest ending in martial law for an extent &/or mass shootings. All about momentum, potential and good old chaos now.
Could it change the belligerence and lies of a so-called president? No, only advance them. Could it lead to a mass, inter-racial movement for peaceful change? Define change. Levels of philanthropy in US life have been diluted by big money since day one, so a divisive, self-sustaining system of corporate worship is ingrained.
I love the cities of Philly, Baltimore and DC, where the warmest greetings you could expect were found by this human. Lot of police around Howard U, SE is saturated, Columbia Heights 16th St. PG county is black but southern Maryland is pretty fucking redneck. DC’s size makes it easier to disrupt despite all the local assets. It’s tragic seeing things now when cajoled by a narcissist, sociopathic head of state. However, if there’s one person who is absolutely bricking it right now, it’s Trump. He doesn’t know this pressure, he dismisses advise and will fall. Like they all do. Then what.
Could it change the belligerence and lies of a so-called president? No, only advance them. Could it lead to a mass, inter-racial movement for peaceful change? Define change. Levels of philanthropy in US life have been diluted by big money since day one, so a divisive, self-sustaining system of corporate worship is ingrained.
I love the cities of Philly, Baltimore and DC, where the warmest greetings you could expect were found by this human. Lot of police around Howard U, SE is saturated, Columbia Heights 16th St. PG county is black but southern Maryland is pretty fucking redneck. DC’s size makes it easier to disrupt despite all the local assets. It’s tragic seeing things now when cajoled by a narcissist, sociopathic head of state. However, if there’s one person who is absolutely bricking it right now, it’s Trump. He doesn’t know this pressure, he dismisses advise and will fall. Like they all do. Then what.