Goodhart's Law & The Wire
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WashYourHands
Cat Malogen
Anthony Giddens. Wrote about agency. And yes that cunt Blair. The rest you can dig for as I’m about to take mushrooms for the first time in 20+years, in warm weather too.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
not just The Wire. all of Simon's - along with his network of collaborators - projects are about this, at varying levels of directness
Generation Kill is about individual Marines trapped both directly in the minutiae of military bureaucracy and in a larger sense the institutional delusion that drove the planning and execution of the Iraq invasion (for a breakdown I which I'd recommend Fiasco by Thomas Ricks).
The Deuce is about the economic realities of the sex trade and people (including cops) trapped in those realities, and also about the self-propelling logic of gentrification and who it benefits or excludes. The Wire also touches on gentrification in Stringer's storyline - recall him and Avon reminiscing about their youth and Stringer lamenting that he wishes he would've been able to invest in property in the Inner Harbor before its "revitalization".
Show Me a Hero is maybe the purest example besides The Wire itself. A politician, under compulsion but still courageously, tries to do the "right thing" and is punished for it with dire consequences. however, it's also the most hopeful of Simon's works - admittedly a low bar to clear - in that it shows some of its characters achieving limited victories within the bounds of those structures without having to compromise their moral values. which is probably the best you can hope for, most of the time.
I haven't seen Treme but presumably it's about the same kinds of themes in relation to post-Katrina NOLA
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
the most powerful example on The Wire I think, even more than the crime stats, is public schools in Season 4
the 00s being the era of No Child Left Behind, which epitomizes Goodhart's Law
incentivizing every school and teacher to teach to the test over everything else, with exactly the results you'd expect - gaming the numbers to match unrealistic goals, etc - just like the crime stats
thinking more or less continued by Obama admin's educational policy, to my understanding
the 00s being the era of No Child Left Behind, which epitomizes Goodhart's Law
incentivizing every school and teacher to teach to the test over everything else, with exactly the results you'd expect - gaming the numbers to match unrealistic goals, etc - just like the crime stats
thinking more or less continued by Obama admin's educational policy, to my understanding
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
one of the most bitter ironies of crime stats btw is that Americans don't believe them
by any statistical measure, violent crime in the U.S. has dropped precipitously in the last 30 years but Americans mostly believe the exact opposite
i.e. Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. - they're wrong
by any statistical measure, violent crime in the U.S. has dropped precipitously in the last 30 years but Americans mostly believe the exact opposite
i.e. Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. - they're wrong
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
as that article mentions despite Chicago having become notorious for violent crime, nearly all of it is concentrated in a small % of the city
I live in one of those neighborhoods and the contrasts are fucking surreal
I don't even live too deep into the hood and it's still all dudes on street corners, the cops are almost literally a force of military occupation, etc
but you go a mile east or north and it's totally gentrified, fancy restaurants etc, yuppies commuting (pre-pandemic) to DT from converted condos, etc
I work downtown myself - only about five miles away, feels like a different galaxy
predictably, the people most likely to be hella nervous about violent crime live in neighborhoods where it isn't remotely an issue
while people who live here mostly just get on with living and take sensible precautions
I live in one of those neighborhoods and the contrasts are fucking surreal
I don't even live too deep into the hood and it's still all dudes on street corners, the cops are almost literally a force of military occupation, etc
but you go a mile east or north and it's totally gentrified, fancy restaurants etc, yuppies commuting (pre-pandemic) to DT from converted condos, etc
I work downtown myself - only about five miles away, feels like a different galaxy
predictably, the people most likely to be hella nervous about violent crime live in neighborhoods where it isn't remotely an issue
while people who live here mostly just get on with living and take sensible precautions
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
but crime is the ultimate dog whistle issue - race, fear of physical safety, etc
I really recommend Show Me a Hero btw
it's like peak Simons on urban decay and the failure of institutions in America (and the West/1st World/Global North generally)
complete with a granular breakdown of the intersection of racism (structural and personal), fear, institutions, and the limits of what policy can achieve
I really recommend Show Me a Hero btw
it's like peak Simons on urban decay and the failure of institutions in America (and the West/1st World/Global North generally)
complete with a granular breakdown of the intersection of racism (structural and personal), fear, institutions, and the limits of what policy can achieve
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
one thing I want to say about Simon et al tho - the analysis and critique are obviously powerful, but they offer no systemic solutions
it's one thing to say this is wrong, this is what's failing and how it's failing. it's another, vastly more difficult thing to say this is what we should do instead.
that's probably unfair to ask of art - they are after all, not actual policy makers
but he's been banging on this drum so insistently for going on 20 years that it's like - well, what are your plausible better ideas?
the happiest endings his characters ever really got are those small limited victories, the compromises you can live with
it's one thing to say this is wrong, this is what's failing and how it's failing. it's another, vastly more difficult thing to say this is what we should do instead.
that's probably unfair to ask of art - they are after all, not actual policy makers
but he's been banging on this drum so insistently for going on 20 years that it's like - well, what are your plausible better ideas?
the happiest endings his characters ever really got are those small limited victories, the compromises you can live with
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
everything he and his team do is is extremely high quality - intensively researched, every care given to detail and realism, etc
they've carved out a niche - highly admired, critically adored, not very widely watched
basically Ken Burns meets Dickens (albeit without his enormous popularity) for the early 21st century
HBO funding his projects is almost like a public service, or at least a prestige TV loss-leader
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WashYourHands
Cat Malogen
We met the goddess of the woods, the garden wasn’t enough, stonewalling hemming the 3 of us in a bit. Walked through tendrils of consciousnesses most of the night, spider webs this morning with microbial drops of dew. The spider god had a sense of humour, very welcoming. Did a booster about 2am, brought on a more enhanced visuals. Listened to owls chatting and bats picking off the midges. Ended up in Spar about 8am, getting hot. Had a nap. Head feels purged.
sus
Moderator
Haven't got to S4 (just finished 3). But I know Obama was a big fan of Simon, called _The Wire_ the best artistic work of the last couple decades. Maybe I can hold some hope alive that some correctives were instituted for these kind of pitfalls.
sus
Moderator
Yup, I'm on the border of Brownsville/East New York here. Five minute bike ride northwest and you hit matcha bars and oysters. Five minute ride southeast and I'm pulling out my earbuds at night.
sus
Moderator
Gonna watch Show Me a Hero tonight and get back. Sounds right up my alley. I think padraig you're spot on with the lack of solutions part, but as you say, seems like just raising the alarm is important on this stuff. There are solutions to e.g. Goodhart's Law, like using metrics as a supplement to, rather than substitution for, qualitative eval. Bureaucratic structure in general... Hard to say, woof.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I knew that I think. it's right up his cerebral alley. and he's not wrong, The Wire is a truly great work, especially if you excise S5.
I agree about "raising the alarm"
or more like, depicting the problems in way that - unlike NGO reports or idk CSPAN or something - has a real cultural footprint
Simon's works no longer have that. there are a number of reasons for that, some of them beyond his control.
the conditions which created prestige TV no longer exist. the monoculture itself no longer exists.
and much of what made The Wire groundbreaking has become standard.
but it's also about the kinds of stories he's chosen, which lean heavily into the sociological depiction at the expense of popular entertainment
not that I want to discourage the making of ambitiously dense ("Dickensian") works about complex, underserved issues
but if you're making art with a message and people aren't really watching it, well
it has a bit of a howling into the wind feeling
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
as far as the problems, I'm no statistician
but presumably there are statisticians or other people who are aware of Goodhart's Law and solutions to it, working in criminology, education policy, etc
and yet these unrealistic policies seem to continue to proliferate. overcoming the internal logics of bureaucratic structure, yeah, woof.
I have read that criminology has made advances in determining the majority of violent street crime is usually perpetrated by a very small group of individuals - I think that was already becoming accepted in the field by the time The Wire debuted? but idk, again no expert
but presumably there are statisticians or other people who are aware of Goodhart's Law and solutions to it, working in criminology, education policy, etc
and yet these unrealistic policies seem to continue to proliferate. overcoming the internal logics of bureaucratic structure, yeah, woof.
I have read that criminology has made advances in determining the majority of violent street crime is usually perpetrated by a very small group of individuals - I think that was already becoming accepted in the field by the time The Wire debuted? but idk, again no expert