It's been a shocking 15 months for bus accidents, you gotta admit.
Aaaaha . Noise noise noiseA ref to one of Dr Biscuits' standard arguments, that recording all deaths within 28 days of a positive diagnosis might mean a vastly inflated covid-19 death toll because of people being diagnosed and then coincidentally getting hit by a bus.
I've just published a new article on Medium. It's much shorter and easier to read than my Wuhan Lab Leak one. (And today's WSJ adds a bit more to that debate...).
My article argues that our epidemic in the U.S. is clearly ending, and we should fret less about herd immunity. But it won't end for all of us at the same time. Immunity levels vary enormously by peer group. More important, all pandemics end -- even the Black Death and Spanish Flu -- even though the pathogens that cause them never disappear. First they end as epidemics. That is, the virus' consequences slowly ebb until they reach the point where we just accept the risk (as we do now with flu and bubonic plague.)
And when that happens, we're back to "normal" again. Or normalish.