In Liz We Truss

Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
IdleRich said:
No seats at a general election? Surely not.
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Well the YouGov survey the other day put Labour on 54%, which is surely not realistic if there were to be an election, but consider previous landslides:

* the Tories under Thatcher got nearly twice as many seats as Labour in 1983, almost 400, with only 42% of the vote.
* Labour under Blair got a huge landslide in 1997 with 43%.
* and the Tories wiped the floor with Labour again three years ago, again with 43% of the vote.

So it's not at inconceivable that one party getting well over half the popular vote would mean the virtual extinction of the other main party, when you consider that other party would be getting far less than 46% of the vote, because people will still be voting for the SNP, Lib Dems, etc.
 
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Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I just went to Google and got as far as typing 'shortest', and the first suggestion was 'shortest serving prime minister', so clearly lots of people have also been wondering if Thick Lizzy is going to set a new British record.

(George Canning, 119 days in 1827, if you were wondering.)
 
sufi

sufi

lala
IdleRich said:
I dunno. As I understand it, the government announced a so-called mini-budget last week that did nothing to address the real concerns of the majority of people but which gave money that the country can't afford to a small group of the richest people. So it seems that the main strategy of the government going forward appears to be to borrow money and give it to rich people - and as that's really stupid the pound collapsed.

Increasing interest rates can make the pound more attractive (cos if you can borrow euros at 4 percent, change them to pounds and lend them at 5 percent lots of people will) so people are talking about the BofE raising interest rates to save the pound from the Tories' idiocy but problem is, if you're poor and owe money then higher interest rates fuck you from the other direction.

Truss keeps saying her strategy is the right one and she'll stick to it but it obviously isn't. Their apologists in the press are saying the pound has collapsed cos the second they announced the mini-budget the markets started fearing Starmer getting in but that is also ridiculous. It feels like a fight between the Tories and reality.
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Yeah so they have bad intentions but also bad execution,
Not only did they propose a highly unprogressive redistribution of income, as they always said they would,
they didnt do the planning, so as soon as they announced their plan, investors and speculators rushed in to exploit its weaknesses, ie long term gilt futures, which would have destroyed the value of private pensions very quickly had the bank of England not done some rapid Quantitative Easing/printing a load more money, which will boost inflation, obvs, though I think they are reluctant to call it qe for some reason.
 
sufi

sufi

lala
sufi said:
Yeah so they have bad intentions but also bad execution,
Not only did they propose a highly unprogressive redistribution of income, as they always said they would,
they didnt do the planning, so as soon as they announced their plan, investors and speculators rushed in to exploit its weaknesses, ie long term gilt futures, which would have destroyed the value of private pensions very quickly had the bank of England not done some rapid Quantitative Easing/printing a load more money, which will boost inflation, obvs, though I think they are reluctant to call it qe for some reason.
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I've been reading ft and watching industry
 
IdleRich

IdleRich

IdleRich
Mr. Tea said:
Well the YouGov survey the other day put Labour on 54%, which is surely not realistic if there were to be an election, but consider previous landslides:

* the Tories under Thatcher got nearly twice as many seats as Labour in 1983, almost 400, with only 42% of the vote.
* Labour under Blair got a huge landslide in 1997 with 43%.
* and the Tories wiped the floor with Labour again three years ago, again with 43% of the vote.

So it's not at inconceivable that one party getting well over half the popular vote would mean the virtual extinction of the other main party, when you consider that other party would be getting far less than 46% of the vote, because people will still be voting for the SNP, Lib Dems, etc.
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You conceivably could have it so that the Tories got 49% of the vote in every seat, in 350 of them Labour got 51% and in the rest Libs got 51%, that would mean that the Tories won 49% of the vote and got my far the most votes but they would have no seats at all and Labour and LDs would share them all with about 25% each... but that is extremely unlikely. I've seen projections of Tories getting 62 up to 69 seats as things stand now, which would be fucking hilarious in itself.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
IdleRich said:
You conceivably could have it so that the Tories got 49% of the vote in every seat, in 350 of them Labour got 51% and in the rest Libs got 51%, that would mean that the Tories won 49% of the vote and got my far the most votes but they would have no seats at all and Labour and LDs would share them all with about 25% each... but that is extremely unlikely. I've seen projections of Tories getting 62 up to 69 seats as things stand now, which would be fucking hilarious in itself.
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I don't know how it's calculated, but I've seen people claiming the predicted results of one or two Tory seats from Electoral Calculus, which presumably takes into account all the things you've just mentioned.
 
IdleRich

IdleRich

IdleRich
Mr. Tea said:
I just went to Google and got as far as typing 'shortest', and the first suggestion was 'shortest serving prime minister', so clearly lots of people have also been wondering if Thick Lizzy is going to set a new British record.

(George Canning, 119 days in 1827, if you were wondering.
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What's funny is that all the last few PMs have been keeping an eye on that to make sure they beat it.
 
jenks

jenks

thread death
Canning at least died in office and wasn’t booted out - although he did help split the party. Like Truss he had been Foreign Secretary but unlike her he appears to have been quite competent…and he had a duel with Castlereagh which meant they could never serve in the same cabinet together.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Looks like that 33% lead in the YG poll the other day wasn't a flash in the pan either, as there've been another two polls giving Labour a 30+ point lead since then:

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luka

luka

Well-known member
election isn't for ages i wouldnt get too excited. boris will probably come back and win a landslide and then rule for another 100 years.
 
D

DannyL

Wild Horses
luka said:
election isn't for ages i wouldnt get too excited. boris will probably come back and win a landslide and then rule for another 100 years.
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That is actually possible.
I think their brand is too fucked now to win though - though piggs might fly and that could change - but the important thing is how to get rid of them quickly which is the difficult bit.
 
D

DannyL

Wild Horses
Worst thing* about is having to listen to them fucking lie all the time. Any statement from them is an act of gaslighting.

*not literally the worst thing
 
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