Environmental Collapse: when and how bad?

droid

Beast of Burden
Its this simple. Without radical transformation in the next decade we will see environmental collapse within the next 15-20 years followed by societal collapse. Business as usual will lead to an almost uninhabitable planet by 2100.
 

yyaldrin

in je ogen waait de wind
Its this simple. Without radical transformation in the next decade we will see environmental collapse within the next 15-20 years followed by societal collapse. Business as usual will lead to an almost uninhabitable planet by 2100.
so we're fucked
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
Has anyone else been following this story? Turns out scientists working for Exxon knew about the connection between atmospheric CO2 and the global climate more than 35 years ago, and even predicted pretty much bang on the money that average CO2 levels would reach 415 ppm by 2019, which they recently have.

exxon_CO2.jpg

But of course they suppressed it, and became a leading player in the AGW-denial industry. It's depressing to think how much progress could have been made in that time if successful legal challenges had been made against what, even then, was unambiguously a campaign of disinformation which has endangered the entire planet to protect corporate profits.

It's reminiscent of the way tobacco companies deliberately suppressed research on the health hazards and addiction potential of smoking, which resulted in some huge lawsuits being made against them and all sorts of laws in many countries requiring these companies to say essentially "this product might kill you" on the packaging, as well as restrictions on where you can smoke and so on. The trouble with the fossil fuel companies is that their potential victims are literally *everyone*, rather than an identifiable group of people suffering particular diseases. That said, there could be some hope in this approach, as some people are clearly much more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/13/...ders-australia-climate-change-intl/index.html

A group of indigenous people from low-lying islands off the coast of Australia on Monday lodged an unprecedented complaint against the country's government, accusing it of insufficient action on climate change.

The eight Torres Strait Islanders filed the complaint with the United Nations Human Rights Committee, claiming that rising sea levels were having a devastating effect on their communities.
Around 4,500 people live on the Torres Strait Islands, a group of more than 270 islands lying between the north coast of Australia and Papua New Guinea. The complainants say their homes, burial grounds and cultural sites could disappear underwater in their lifetimes.
Australia's failure to adequately address the problem was a breach of its human rights obligations to the islanders, they allege.
Australia is a good place to start actually, not just because of their very visible and very disadvantaged indigenous communities but also because they're a particularly bad offender for GHG emissions - eighth-worst in the world a few years ago (in per-person terms).
 
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droid

Beast of Burden
Flawed Reasoning: The authors' argument claims a correlation between cloud cover/relative humidity and global temperature proves that the former caused the latter without investigating whether they have the relationship backwards.

Inadequate support: The source of their claimed global cloud dataset is not given, and no research on their proposed mechanism for climate change is cited.

Fails to provide correct physical explanation: The manuscript incorrectly claims that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide is caused by release from ocean waters. It also provides no explanation for the claim that an increase in relative humidity causes global cooling.

This document is not a proper scientific paper and would not pass peer review in an academic journal. The crucial data sources (e.g. of the dataset claimed to be low cloud cover) are not provided, and the figure purporting to show changes in cloud cover is at odds with peer-reviewed papers like Eastman et al1. That published scientific paper does not show the decline in low cloud cover claimed in this document.

https://climatefeedback.org/claimre...ral-cloud-changes-can-explain-global-warming/
 

HMGovt

Bamber Clatscoigne
Flawed Reasoning: The authors' argument claims a correlation between cloud cover/relative humidity and global temperature proves that the former caused the latter without investigating whether they have the relationship backwards.

Inadequate support: The source of their claimed global cloud dataset is not given, and no research on their proposed mechanism for climate change is cited.

Fails to provide correct physical explanation: The manuscript incorrectly claims that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide is caused by release from ocean waters. It also provides no explanation for the claim that an increase in relative humidity causes global cooling.

This document is not a proper scientific paper and would not pass peer review in an academic journal. The crucial data sources (e.g. of the dataset claimed to be low cloud cover) are not provided, and the figure purporting to show changes in cloud cover is at odds with peer-reviewed papers like Eastman et al1. That published scientific paper does not show the decline in low cloud cover claimed in this document.

https://climatefeedback.org/claimre...ral-cloud-changes-can-explain-global-warming/
Yes it's nonsense, when you go down to the references... tumbleweed and crickets!
 

yyaldrin

in je ogen waait de wind
watching sparrows take dust baths, flapping their little wings in the sand, cheep cheep cheep cheep. might buy an ice cream later.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
1. Accept that changes are coming, treat others with love and compassion and try to build communities in your neighbourhood, workplace etc.
2. Talk to people. Tell everyone you know what's going on and how dire the situation is and urge them to take action.
3. Join an environmental group, lobby politicians, take part in or support direct action groups.
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4. Make changes in your own lifestyle to reduce your burden on the planet.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
It's tempting to narrativise the situation and whilst the worst outcomes are terrifying and disturbing plausible, the universe does not punish bad behaviour.

Nothing is written in stone. Anything is possible. We were barely missed by a 30xHiroshima asteroid last week - that could have hit the whitehouse!
 

pattycakes_

Well-known member
I don't want to get into a debate or anything but are you open to the idea (as some theorise) that part of this situ being to do with a natural climate oscillation that happens over millenia and we just happen to be unlucky enough to be there toward the extreme of the chart or do you think it's mostly down to man?

Obviously we are playing a massive role.
 

droid

Beast of Burden
No, its total garbage. We're actually heading into a grand solar minimum which my keep us a few fractions of a degree lower than we should be over the coming decades. If this was a natural cycle, the planet would be getting colder.
 
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