Since it's been a while since we had an Israel/Palestine thread...

[droid]

Id say the ground invasion is sealed anyway. Probably waiting for Clinton to make some agreement with Egypt before they go in.

That said, Israel seems a touch less bloodthristy this time (comparatively speaking) so who knows.

 

[droid]

Now there's a nice surprise! http://www.itv.com/news/story/2012-11-14/israel-hamas-gaza/

 

[droid]

Right, so the siege is (apparently) ended, Hamas have extended their tactical reach to new heights, and have surely expanded their support base in the West Bank.

Israel are accepting far worse terms than those offered before this debacle, the iron dome has only managed to stop about 30% of rockets (not such a great rehearsal for Iran) and new domestic security vulnerabilities have been exposed.

This is an absolute disaster. The only credible explanation is Obama.

 

[crackerjack]

Certainly looks like the big winner here is the new Egyptian govt.

edit: with Hamas 2nd? Hard to say. Their status may be enhanced, but for how long? And they must have taken a lot of damage.

Abbas looks like the big loser and we'll soon know about Bibi.

 

[droid]

There's contrary reports at the moment. If Israel really is lifting then siege then Hamas have achieved their central aim of the last five years.

 

[crackerjack]

There's contrary reports at the moment. If Israel really is lifting then siege then Hamas have achieved their central aim of the last five years.

and according to this that I've just read, no commitment from Egypt to shut down arms tunnels. Seems hard to believe Israel would agree to something that one-sided.

 

[droid]

It just shows the pressure that the US can bring to bear. They could end it all tomorrow if they wanted to.

Obviously the potential for escalation and regional meltdown wasn't lost on the Americans. To have been a fly on the wall on that Clinton/Netenyahu meeting!

 

[droid]

Still cant quite believe it. Waiting on the other shoe to drop.

 

[crackerjack]

It just shows the pressure that the US can bring to bear. They could end it all tomorrow if they wanted to.

Obviously the potential for escalation and regional meltdown wasn't lost on the Americans. To have been a fly on the wall on that Clinton/Netenyahu meeting!

Reckon Bill was texting high-fives to Hills? Was always said he fucking loathed Bibi back in the 90s.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

definitely agree it was an unmitigated disaster for Israel diplomatically + strategically. legitimized Hamas, at expense of Abbas, in way Hamas could never have achieved on its own and lifting of blockade would be massive, massive coup. lot of other bad signs - Erdogan's hardline rhetoric (that bridge is well + truly burnt), Iran feeling confident to proudly trumpet its arming of Hamas etc. really looks like a self-inflicted wound.

more of a mixed bag w/Egypt. Morsi/IB obv philosophically sympathetic to Hamas but like every prior Egyptian govt also don't want to deal w/the actual headache of Gaza. also don't want to cut ties w/Israel. also, have own significant looming domestic problems to deal with.

Abbas definitely a big loser tho I do wonder what impact this will ultimately have on his UN bid, and whether it's even relevant any more.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

the iron dome has only managed to stop about 30% of rockets (not such a great rehearsal for Iran) and new domestic security vulnerabilities have been exposed

this I'm not so sure about tho. jury's still out on Iron Dome tho. misleading to say it only stopped low % of rockets since it was never designed to stop all rockets - too expensive - only in populated areas. and it's only partially complete. everything I've read suggests it was basically successful at what it was intended to do. main pragmatic issue is expense - costs ~$50k to shoot down every >$1k Hamas rocket - such that Hamas/others could conceivably simply price Israel out w/flood of cheap rockets. don't know if that $ balance changes w/Iran, i.e. since it's further away Iran needs to fire more expensive rockets to reach Israel. don't think it was ever intended to totally nullify domestic rocket fire tho.

we already talked about domestic security above but I don't think one bombing represents a serious new vulnerability, especially since we still don't know actually did it (at least that I've heard). a spate of bombings going forward would but that remains to be seen.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

It just shows the pressure that the US can bring to bear. They could end it all tomorrow if they wanted to

yes + no innit

don't think Israelis ever wanted to go in on ground (for one see Lieberman's rather bizarre comments) but military operations develop their own internal logic, in fact O/H.C. may have even offered them a way out of quagmire. Bibi is many things but he ain't stupid.

 

[crackerjack]

Just seen Barghouti on the news. When did he get out of jail?

 

[droid]

or I dunno, maybe someone (someone like Jabari, if not actually him) foresaw that cast lead wouldn't resolve anything and they should hold a card or two back for next time? or maybe 4 years is just a long, long time to be ever-vigilant and someone fucked up? (also how hard is it to get from gaza to egypt, then to the west bank and enter that way? I have no idea if that's even a thing that happens, I'm just wondering) but it's all speculation at this point. co-opted Fatah cells sounds like it makes sense tho.



yeah that thought crossed my mind. I don't even like to speculate about that cos Israeli Arabs already take so much shit in the loyalty dept but yeah, that's always the great fear.

Pretty much all of the above...

Israel arrests Hamas, Islamic Jihad cell behind Tel Aviv bus bomb
Sources say operatives associated with Islamist groups from West Bank village of Beit Lakiya, and recruited Palestinian with Israeli citizenship; Shin Bet: More arrests underway.

http://www.haaretz.com/

 

[droid]

yes + no innit

don't think Israelis ever wanted to go in on ground (for one see Lieberman's rather bizarre comments) but military operations develop their own internal logic, in fact O/H.C. may have even offered them a way out of quagmire. Bibi is many things but he ain't stupid.

I dunno. I honestly cant remember a situation in the last decade where Israel backed down on anything but their own terms. Egyptian stability was surely a factor, and there's some interesting timing with this patriot NATO deal with Turkey.

Maybe it wasn't all stick, but I cant see what carrot could have been big enough to provoke such an uncharacteristic climb down.

 

[droid]

this I'm not so sure about tho. jury's still out on Iron Dome tho. misleading to say it only stopped low % of rockets since it was never designed to stop all rockets - too expensive - only in populated areas. and it's only partially complete. everything I've read suggests it was basically successful at what it was intended to do. main pragmatic issue is expense - costs ~$50k to shoot down every >$1k Hamas rocket - such that Hamas/others could conceivably simply price Israel out w/flood of cheap rockets. don't know if that $ balance changes w/Iran, i.e. since it's further away Iran needs to fire more expensive rockets to reach Israel. don't think it was ever intended to totally nullify domestic rocket fire tho.

we already talked about domestic security above but I don't think one bombing represents a serious new vulnerability, especially since we still don't know actually did it (at least that I've heard). a spate of bombings going forward would but that remains to be seen.

Sorry, that is misleading. I found a figure of 62% over populated areas. Might be fine for Hamas' flying drainpipes, but in combination with Hezbollah and Iran firing real missiles? Overall cost was apparently 30 million btw.

As for the bombing, sure it's nothing new, but it's significant that its the first bombing in what? 5 or 6 years at least. Someone took their eye of the ball - especially given the security regime in the West Bank.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Pretty much all of the above...

yikes

I dunno. I honestly cant remember a situation in the last decade where Israel backed down on anything but their own terms

yeah, but, you saw it - this whole thing was a fucking incoherent mess start to finish. I should be more clear - I'm not saying Israelis were never going to go in, just that Bibi etc weren't enthusiastic about it and this offers a way out w/modicum of saving face. 2008 was meticulously planned. this feels like sending a message (Jabari) that then spun out of control.

think Israelis a lot warier about going in on ground than in 2008. Hamas now equipped w/same anti-tank missiles Hezballah used to embarrass IDF in 2006. probably not in great numbers but enough to make invasion - esp in tangled rat warren of Gaza (bad armor territory) - more costly/less effective. also, I'm sure Israeli leadership is aware how much worse the regional situation is for them than 4 years ago. plus they must be aware of the diminishing returns of repeated missile wars at this point. bringing us to...

Sorry, that is misleading. I found a figure of 62% over populated areas. Might be fine for Hamas' flying drainpipes, but in combination with Hezbollah and Iran firing real missiles? Overall cost was apparently 30 million btw.

from what I've read Iran's missile arsenal is large + diverse but low quality. here's a rundown. the general feasibility of ballistic missile defense seems to be a debated topic in military circles, so I really dunno (btw, fwiw Israelis apparently claiming 90% over populated areas). but really, goals w/Hamas and Iran/Hezballah are different. in actual war Israel would have to accept certain amount of casualties (including civilian) going in, but w/Palestinians current Israeli regime just wants space to keep cold peace as long as possible while developing facts on ground in West Bank.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

I am as firm a believer as can be that historical forces make the individual rather than vice versa but I do think that occasionally circumstances allow specific individuals to be the making or breaking point for major diverging possibilities, and as I saw all this unfolding, I thought to myself, what if Rabin had lived another 5 or 10 years? could he have secured a lasting peace with Arafat or someone like Barghouti? was that the last, best hope for any of this ending at all well? even as much bad blood as there was then, it seems like there's exponentially more now, and no one on either side with both the credibility and the willingness to make and domestically enforce a peace. or I dunno. but like I said to start, how incredibly depressing it is watch this grim, inexorable march to nowhere.

 

[droid]

Much to be said in the wake of the ceasefire, the statehood bid, Egyptian constitution & new settlements, but this took me by surprise. I didnt know the situation was quite so fucked up:

The revelation that Israel is sterilizing Ethiopian women adds to a shameful history of abuse of powerless women and communities.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Just staggering levels of cuntery - and a peculiarly smug, postmodern kind of cuntery at that - Israeli soldier posts Instagram image of Palestinian child in crosshairs of rifle.