Is this the end of the Reagan/Rove right?

crackerjack

Well-known member
This seems like a pretty solid analysis of McC's election strategy from Finkelstein, who's not always the most candid commentator.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/09/take-a-look-at.html

McCain will find it hard to reverse this overall position. So what can he do?

Provide shocks.

He is just about capable of turning the race for brief periods. His one chance of winning is that one of his small short-lived spikes coincides with election day.

His strategy therefore will not be the long grind of building a message and winning trust. It will be to pull rabbits out of hats. He has to keep turning the race to keep himself in it.

And then hope he has kept one bit of reckless surprise back big enough to win, to be timed right for the end of the race.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
Obama leading 4.2. Really needs to bump it up towards double digits after this debate, c'mon!!!

Panic not, young Swears. The debate was supposed to be McC's big chance against the woolly and waffly Obama, and he blew it. The most interesting aspect of the fall out is that, while most commentators think it was a tie, the polls (at least those not conducted among readers the Drudge report) are giving it to Obama by around 10 points. That may reflect the importance of affability and body language rather than hard debating points to the electorate, or it may say a great deal about how people feel about the respective candidates right now.

Anyway, these make good reading.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Saturday, September 27
National Gallup Tracking Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 44 Obama +6
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 43 Obama +5

A couple of rasmussen polls also have Obama down 1 in Florida (the loewst Mcc lead in a while) and up 5 in Virginia.
 

swears

preppy-kei
I think you still have to take into account the racial factor, though. How many people are saying in polls that they're for him, but on the day might vote McCain?

Doesn't bare thinking about. :(

Obama just seems too good to be true, I don't want to get my hopes up.
 

Freakaholic

not just an addiction
Politcal Science

The best summary of the election process that Ive read comes from.... you guessed it: Stephen Colbert. He and John Stewart recently had a conversation with Entertainment Weekly:


JON STEWART: I was convinced an Obama/McCain campaign would be measurably different on almost all standards. And to watch it become Bush/Kerry, Bush/Gore, has been one of the most dissatisfying experiences.
STEPHEN COLBERT: That means it's not an Obama/McCain campaign. It's a Guys Who Work for Bush/Guys Who Work for Kerry campaign. Both sides have people who are just smart enough to know ''We need to tweak this dial right here,'' so of course voters are divided 50/50 between the parties. When the 2000 election was down to 14 voters in Boca deciding the whole thing, I thought, ''Wow, that's great! It really is a political science! They've found a way to put electrodes in people's hands, and a probe up their butt, show them images, and say 'See how they respond!'''


I had read this a few days before the debates, and it really hit home seeing those two men on TV. Politicians, especially presidential candidates, are always on. They must play a role 24 hours a day, because they are little more than cogs in a machine - a political science machine. And the people running the machine definitely have it down to a statistical/marketing science. I think we will continue to see 50/50 elections in the US until some catastrophe - larger than the several that have happened in the last 8 years - occurs.

That said, I think the Obama campaign has done some things, mostly behind the scenes, to change this in the long run. Perhaps the very long run.
 

mms

sometimes
well it seems especially tonight that the elections have fed into the decision on this economic plan and the the polarisation over political wrangling itself rather than the effect politicians can make by taking some action. I mean it's just partisan and petty to a frightening extent.
its almost like politicians themselves don't believe that politics has any value outside their own ideologies, like pure maths or something like that.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
I think you still have to take into account the racial factor, though. How many people are saying in polls that they're for him, but on the day might vote McCain?

Some interesting stuff here on the Bradley Effect (the situation you describe above).

As we have described here before, polling numbers from the primaries suggested no presence of a Bradley Effect. On the contrary, it was Barack Obama -- not Hillary Clinton -- who somewhat outperformed his polls on Election Day....

On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day.

The data is taken from Obama v Clinton in the primaries, so it may be too narrow, but you can dind links to other studies on this page.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/on-race-based-voting.html
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
By all accounts neither stuck foot too far into moouth. palin was all folksy darnit and soccer mumsy, but the hoped-for train wreck didn't materialise. Biden managed not to pat her on the head and suggest she go fix some coffee. (this is going by reports - i'm not so obsessed as to stay up til 4am)
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"By all accounts neither stuck foot too far into moouth. palin was all folksy darnit and soccer mumsy, but the hoped-for train wreck didn't materialise. Biden managed not to pat her on the head and suggest she go fix some coffee. (this is going by reports - i'm not so obsessed as to stay up til 4am)"
I would have been gutted if I had stayed up and then she didn't even make any hilarious cock-ups.
 

staypuft

bwah bwah
biden played nice ad seemed very informed. palin did what she does best and evaded questions with cliche patriotism. she actually invoked the soccer mom reputation in the beginning by saying something like, "so I was at a soccer game and asked one of the moms how america is doing". also she gave a 'shout out' to her sister's 3rd grade class... sickening. of course biden came back with a brilliant number where he mentioned his wife and kid dying and raising 2 kids all by himself, and got all choked up. all about the dramatics.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
Or how about his rewriting of Bosnia history to assert that John McCain didn't support President Clinton in the 1990s. "My recommendations on Bosnia, I admit I was the first one to recommend it. They saved tens of thousands of lives. And initially John McCain opposed it along with a lot of other people. But the end result was it worked." Mr. Biden's immodesty aside, Mr. McCain supported Mr. Clinton on Bosnia, as did Bob Dole even as he was running against him for President in 1996 -- in contrast to the way Mr. Biden and Democratic leaders have tried to undermine President Bush on Iraq.

Some of that stuff is embarrassing, but this bit doesn't follow. Biden's claim is that he was the first to advocate intervention in Bosnia and McCain iniitially opposed it - just because McCain supported the policy by 96 doesn't mean he agreed before that.
 

nomadthethird

more issues than Time mag
The Lebanon thing was pretty strange and I can't figure out what Biden meant, but the rest of the points in that article are weak (especially if you compare what they're calling Biden's "fantasy world" to Palin's smarmy "Reganesque" nasal downhome-isms and outrageous policy-naivete--luckily she won't be seeing hide nor hair of the WH).

It was worth reading, though, because it pointed me to the single best article I've read in the WSJ in years:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122342526024513543.html
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
The Lebanon thing was pretty strange and I can't figure out what Biden meant, but the rest of the points in that article are weak (especially if you compare what they're calling Biden's "fantasy world" to Palin's smarmy "Reganesque" nasal downhome-isms and outrageous policy-naivete--luckily she won't be seeing hide nor hair of the WH).

It was worth reading, though, because it pointed me to the single best article I've read in the WSJ in years:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122342526024513543.html

Nice piece. Didn't realise the WSJ even published things from that angle - tho I guess you're implying they don't, as a rule.
 
Top