if no one else will I’ll have a crack at it. haven’t followed this as close as 2 yrs ago or Iran 09 but close enough to get gist I think.
been hashing my thoughts out w/a free minute here and there for last couple days. bit long, bear with:
so economy, not great to begin with, has
completely gone to shit since the revolution. Huge increase in poverty, massive debt growth, govt burning through its cash reserves at speed of light, to the point where it can barely fulfill populace’s basic needs (food, water, energy), and that only via huge loans from places like Qatar and Turkey (and U.S.’s annual aid, of course). IMF offering loans but only, of course, on condition of imposing austerity, which would mean cutting food + energy subsidies, which no politician wants to do b/c 1) they’re wildly popular and 2) they’re the only thing keeping lot of people solvent. some of this mess not post-Mubarak govt’s fault, whole region still feeling economic fallout of Arab Spring – lack of investment and total drying up of tourism, latter of which hits Egypt especially hard – but still MB and opposition spent all their time arguing about who and how would govern and very little actually governing. not to say that poor Egyptians don’t also care about creeping sharia and the deep state and whatever else but important economic motivations inspiring huge mass unrest seem at odds with what various factions vying for power are talking about and doing.
the military is smart, knew all they had to was wait and whoever got into power would make a shambles of it sooner or later. even smarter, learned they don’t want the headache of actually ruling, so will put in a puppet government to do it for them. only chance to dismantle security apparatus was right away post-Mubarak, should have been 1st order of business but instead MB and Salafis and secular/left just wanted to argue w/each other. Now they’re fucked, they’ll never be rid of it. also, military has apparently infiltrated the new govt bureaucracy to considerable extent, making it even harder to dislodge.
I wonder if MB or Salafis - who btw hate each other as much if not more than they hate anyone else - are significantly armed. seems unlikely unless one of them makes common cause w/some faction of army. not a free for all like Syria. tho, who knows. think this current relative hands-off approach by military to MB/protests is a release valve for Islamist anger, as well as cleverly using legitimate popular anger as a cover for coup, to make it seem legitimate/non-violent. [UPDATE: well there goes hands off]
Feel like unfortunately pretty much all of what I said a year ago is/came true:
2 other points of note, both of which should also surprise no one: secular liberals + leftists have, after being such a driving force in the revolution, been thoroughly marginalized; the security apparatus of the Mubarak state are still well entrenched and will likely continue being so despite all other factions agreeing (possibly the only thing they agree on) that they are bad. oh yes and as mentioned Egyptian transitory politics are a total clusterfuck. neither a new military state or an Islamist takeover are entirely unlikely. I feel like my repetition of this idea is getting into carthago delenda est territory at this point, but again: to win a revolution is easier than, and don't matter if you can't, win the post-revolution. and the secular left/lib types Westerners like were always going to lose this one. your base can't be a million foreign fucking Twitter followers. social media revolutions are bullshit, especially once all those self-satisfied Westerners move on to the next Kony 2012 and leave you stuck in the shit by yourself. oh yes + Obama + his crew (+ anyone else who's mouth-serviced Arab Spring) left/are leaving those cats seriously in the lurch too. a new beginning indeed.
new military state, albeit through puppet civilian govt rather than directly, thwarts Islamist takeover. secular lib/left can get people onto the street and foreign media coverage but remains excluded from real power – at key moments it can tip the balance between the two big players but couldn’t face down either one on its own.
problem for U.S. and Israel same as always - who to support when there are no good options. bit embarrassing that we immediately cozied up to MB govt, which is now blowing up in our faces - U.S. ambassador big target of protests - but whoever comes in next we'll cozy up to them and they'll take it and won't step too far out of line, cos, you know, $$$ and military aid and etc. ultimately all we really give a shit about is stability and our security. al-Sisi is relatively young and vigorous, has U.S. ties, could easily be our strongman there for the next decade. Obama's Cairo speech, absurd bullshit at the time, grows more risible with every passing day.