Patrick Swayze
I'm trying to shut up
http://survation.com/snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory/
Survation Telephone, Ballot Paper Prompt:
CON 37%
LAB 31%
LD 10
UKIP 11
GRE 5
Others (including the SNP) 6%
Which would have been very close to the final result.
We had flagged that we were conducting this poll to the Daily Mirror as something we might share as an interesting check on our online vs our telephone methodology, but the results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” – that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll always regret.
So rather than being a problem with polling methodology, the problem is with the pollsters' herd mentality and risk averse desire to reaffirm an existing narrative.