David Renton:
In the last four polls, the Tories have been ahead by an average of 9 points
In the same four polls their lead has narrowed by an average of 3.5 points compared to the week before
That trend will continue for at least another week, taking another big chunk out of the Tory lead.
How do we know this?
Because a lot of the narrowing isn’t down to Labour doing well but simply increased youth registration.(+)
Of course, if Labour campaign well, the lead could narrow even faster
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+(When polling companies estimate who, in their sample, will actually vote - they discount a proportion of the preferences of under 35s as most don’t vote. At the start of the election period registrations were low. They have since increased as fast as in any election. The more evidence of youth registration they have, the less the polling companies discount. Registration ended on 25 November so up until around 2 December, a week on week comparison will still automatically predict a higher vote share for Labour compared to the week before).
If the Tories lose this election then one person will deserve as much credit as Corbyn: Stormzy