Election incoming

[...]

This is what 6 box sets of game of thrones does to people.

This is a shrewd assessment.

 

[subvert47]

Idk. I would like to see a long term vision that's more inclusive. If nothing else, it'll be needed to beat the Tories next time around. Blair/Ashdown non-aggression pact seems to me a good example of that.

Well, with the two main issues of this election finished with — Brexit going ahead and Corbyn (soon to be) gone (along with John McDonnell and possibly Diane Abbott too) — we'll see what there is to do. But I note that over ten million people did actually vote for Labour policies this time (more than for Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown, and 2005 Tony Blair). There's no reason at all to abandon them now to move to some non-existent centre ground, nor to reinstate some Blairite hasbeen as leader. Personally, I'd go with Clive Lewis, but he's probably not big enough in the party, nor likely to stand anyway.

 

[DannyL]

I was kinda zooming out from the particularities of this election, it'll depend on what happens to LD and Labour now, what kinda paths they both choose, before we'd know if anything like that is ven possible. Strikes me as sensible under FPTP. I agree that "the centre" doesn't seem to catch people's excitement, desire for change.

McDonnell has said he's going IIRC.

 

[ver$hy ver$h]

‘The Liberal Democrat message that “Jo Swinson could be the next prime minister” was one of the worst performing messages we have tested anywhere in Europe.’

 

[ver$hy ver$h]

Straightforward from here:

1. Hard Brexit
2. US exits NATO
3. Deficit-financed French military buildup revitalizes EZ economy
4. Cross-channel humanitarian intervention
5. Macron invested as First Consul of the United States Of Europe at rebuilt Notre Dame

 

[ver$hy ver$h]

 

[Mr. Tea]

Straightforward from here:

1. Hard Brexit
2. US exits NATO
3. Deficit-financed French military buildup revitalizes EZ economy
4. Cross-channel humanitarian intervention
5. Macron invested as First Consul of the United States Of Europe at rebuilt Notre Dame

6. Mecha Jet Pack Macron battles Putin Zord for fate of all free people.

 

[Mr. Tea]

But I note that over ten million people did actually vote for Labour policies this time (more than for Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown, and 2005 Tony Blair).

The UK's population is bigger by over 7,000,000 than it was in 2005, so let's not get carried away.

 

[subvert47]

The UK's population is bigger by over 7,000,000 than it was in 2005, so let's not get carried away.

fair point

 

[baboon2004]

Yep, no way current Labour support now compares to the Blair era (though 2017 was in the same ballpark of course percentage wise, and beat 2005 Labour support, but then there was a genuine three-party clash in 2005). Plus the world now is a completely different place, with the Conservative opponent far more organised, powerful and riding on the zeitgeist of a backlash against liberalism/progressiveness. Hard to recall now precisely what an unelectable rabble the Tories were in the 2000s - the Hague and Howard years.

Though when viewing these things in historical context, it is important to say that Labour's % election results of 2017 and 2019 were still better than 2010 and 2015 (I think I'm right there). Obviously the collapse of the Lib Dems has to be taken into account, but when it is, 2015 looks like a particularly bad result.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Yeah, Labour's share of the vote was slightly better than in the last three elections. Of course it all depends on the distribution of votes. I suspect Labour will have done very well in inner London and the southern university towns where lots of young people are still very pro-Corbyn. Sadly it doesn't matter how big a margin each seat is won by.

 

[subvert47]

A decent piece by Tom Kibasi on all this...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/labour-2017-2019-corbyn-brexit-election

 

[subvert47]

And while I'm not really a fan of Simon Jenkins, this is entertainingly brutal...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/lib-dems-tories-split-vote-labour

 

[Mr. Tea]

A decent piece by Tom Kibasi on all this...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/16/labour-2017-2019-corbyn-brexit-election

Some early analysis from Datapraxis suggests that nearly half of the Labour seat losses could be attributed to losing more remainers to other parties than the size of the Tory majority in leave seats. By attempting to triangulate, Labour convinced leavers it was for remain and remainers that it was for leave. The party looked cynical and opportunistic, as if it were playing games on Brexit to secure electoral advantage, rather than sticking to its principles or standing up for the national interest. The damage came from the journey rather than the destination of Labour’s position.

This is exactly it. I think Labour would have done much better last week (or may even have won outright in 2017, when Corbyn himself was briefly relatively popular) if, the moment the referendum result was announced, it had adopted a totally unambiguous position on Brexit and stuck with it, regardless of whether that position was pro or anti.

It's probably a universal truth, although it seems more important now than ever, that a very simple message will always have more impact than a nuanced one. What the message actually says is of secondary importance.

Edit:



Femi OTM as usual. 'Soft Brexit' was a stupid policy because absolutely nobody actually wants it. Remainers don't want it because it's unequivocally a worse deal than what we have. Leavers don't want it because it gives us *less* sovereignty, not more.

Best Brexit strategy for Labour would have been a strong Remain position. Second best would have been a strong Leave position. Worst possible strategy was the one they ended up with.

Whether even a Remain positition would have been enough to counter Corbyn's rock-bottom popularity, I don't know - probably not. But it would at least have seen off much of the vote leak to the Lib Dems and Greens, so the result wouldn't have been quite as bad as it was.

 

[baboon2004]

I'm glad someone is crunching the numbers on this one. The lack of a simple message, both on Brexit and on other issues, was a huge drawback to the campaign. Choose Remain and vapourise the Lib Dems to make it a two-way battle outside Scotland.

They'd probably still have lost (?) but it would have been less crushing for sure.

I am finding the relentless media focus solely on Labour's shortcomings annoying though, much as I think these exist (and messaging being the key one). The fact is, many people were very happy to align themselves with a grouping including the far right, if it suited their interests - that's not only Labour's problem. The much-repeated line that "Northern voters repeatedly rejected the BNP so they can't possibly be racist" totally misses the point. Many were willing to collude with a party dogwhistling (and often more) to the far right. Labour has a responsibility for many things, but it doesn't bear the whole load for that. Education? Decency? I don't know, but blaming the LP for it alone misses a far wider cultural change in society.

Again goes back to Bannon's line about culture, and the culture in Britain is toxic at the moment.

I guess it links in with the comment John made somewhere about the need for a social movement. If the left, or indeed liberals as well, leave it up to representative democracy, then they're not going to win, possibly ever at this rate given the upcoming gerrymandering

 

[DannyL]

As Bob From Brockley put it on Twitter: and, arguably, the failure/refusal of the Labour leadership to articulate a clear & heartfelt anti-Brexit conviction enabled the narrative of Remain as an elite project to keep its grip

Good thread:

A lot of the criticism in circulation is I think backdated wish-fulfillment - if only Corbyn had given a shit about Remain and been putting this out there from the off. But people were in denial - I remember having a day long argument with two Corbyn fans who were trying to say he'd knocked himself out with the strength of his pro-Remain campaigning.

 

[hmg]

One of these was inevitable

[video]https://captiongenerator.com/1609742/Paul-Mason-reacts-to-Labours-election-defeat[/video]

 

[baboon2004]

I'm intrigued to know, given the vote-age correlation, in how many families parents voted Tory Leave and children Labour/Lib Dem Remain. Awks.

 

[Mr. Tea]

One of these was inevitable

[video]https://captiongenerator.com/1609742/Paul-Mason-reacts-to-Labours-election-defeat[/video]

Ha, I was just thinking "I bet there's a Downfall parody by now."

 

[DannyL]

I'm intrigued to know, given the vote-age correlation, in how many families parents voted Tory Leave and children Labour/Lib Dem Remain. Awks.

Some data on age splits here:
though not broken down by family.

Same dude has just posted info on splits by income. Labour's biggest group those who earn £40-70k apparently.