Dissensus Dilettante Society

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
more often as a sort of propaganda tool to create the impression of competitive invulnerability, smoke and mirrors
the exact same impetus for getting the ca. 1970 room-sized computer on Mad Men

"it's going to do lots of magical things, like make Harry Crane seem important"
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
not that I ever looked into it, but my impression was always that "fintech" was mostly buzzword smoke + mirrors

a shiny facade for the same old hustle of financial services bros finding ways to take a piece of out of HNWIs

I wish I had a picture of it but there was a billboard for awhile in River North (i.e. higher end yuppie central) that perfectly encapsulated it

a perfect white teeth smiling late 20s woman in business casual "HOW DID SHE BUY HER FIXER-UPPER IN LOGAN SQUARE [i.e. where it would've been smart to buy 10-15 years ago and now is for clueless affluent ppl]? [X FINTECH SERVICE]"

it jives with my impression that if this stuff actually worked - better than standard financial services, anyway - why would it be available to standard issue yuppies, who in money management terms are total plebs, surely it would be reserved for the truly wealthy, just like everything else in investing
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
I mean I don't know anything about it, aside from that lecture, but perhaps certain financial technical innovations can work for the plebs as well as the experts? Don't know.

The way machine learning was described in that class, made it sound like it had robust applications in finance that would definitely exceed the understanding of the average person.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
and I know exactly enough about finance and investing to know I don't really know anything

but that's also enough to know that most people don't even know that much

and the idea of fintech just fits so perfectly into finance bro (finbro) love of making everything sound as complicated as possible as part of the sales pitch
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
Oh I;m sure theres plenty of room for BS artistry there, buzzword flashery, but there also seems to be genuine applications for some of this stuff. Not that you're arguing there isn't.

Wouldn't surprise me if BS artists had a field day with the telegram, telephone, etc. Not sure what that pitch would sound like, though.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
perhaps certain financial technical innovations can work for the plebs as well as the experts?
possibly, that goes beyond my knowledge

obviously it's potentially true, ATMs work for anyone with a bank account, there are probably many examples

I think the idea is that no matter what, financial innovation is always going to work out much better for the very wealthy and the people who manage their money, because they're usually the ones doing the innovating and either writing the rules or paying off (legally or otherwise) the people who write the rules or both

tho some things may have a democratizing effect as well, idk, like I said it gets beyond what I know pretty quick
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
Yeah I'm with you there. We could even argue thats the engine of the widening wealth disparity, no? Especially when we consider, as you point out, that the development of this stuff is funded/administered by those whom it will benefit most. Yet alone how that stuff is distributed and made accessible to everyone else.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
BS artists had a field day with the telegram, telephone, etc.
I mean, social engineering - there are a ton out of outright scams based on either technology, people will always find an angle

but even if you discard illegality, the idea is that big $ will always know all the best legal (and gray area) angles the best - and when it needs to, often it can just create those angles

that's why people invest in mutual funds. I as an individual investor can never compete with an investment bank.

it's why people so closely follow the moves of famous big $ investors, they presumably know more
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I don't see why "fintech" would be any different

have you ever interacted with financial adviser types? they assume you're totally ignorant until you demonstrate otherwise

money is like health/fitness - selecting sound advice out of the vast sea of snake oil requires a serious amount of research most ppl won't actually do
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
why is presumably why salespeople can get away with all the nonsense @beiser is talking about, consumer/investor ignorance

Emperor's New Clothes 2.0 (or actually, 3.0 probably fits better in this metaphor)

look at our magic new fintech
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
Haven't interacted with those people before, but that adds up.

Why bother learning the technical matters in order to profit, when you can just exploit other people who don't know?
 

linebaugh

Well-known member
before the 08 crash certain firms were bragging their fintech was so advanced it could only be understood by astrophysicists
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
the financial world is very strange

many people know a lot of things, but in an ultimate sense no one knows anything

but the entire thing is predicated on knowing more than anyone else
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Why bother learning the technical matters in order to profit, when you can just exploit other people who don't know?
that's what quants are for

but even quants can't detect an in-house delusion - garbage in, garbage out

which is basically how the financial crisis happened - or turned into a much larger, existential disaster than typical boom/bust cycle

Wall Street collectively deluded itself into thinking its own bullshit was sound, and so buying it in massive, highly leveraged quantities
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
so again, like I said, I only claim to know enough to know that I don't really know anything

but the soundest policy is to treat everything with a very healthy skepticism

the first rule of investing that I learned was don't invest in something if you don't understand the mechanism by which it works
 
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