War In Iran

Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
vimothy said:
FWIW, Iraq is probably the most "pro-Israeli" country in the region.
Click to expand...

Well, obviously it is *now*. I was talking more about the comments that mentioned 'Jew S of A', 'Amerikkka' and '9/11 truth' and, er, demanded the legalisation of marijuana. Which is clearly the most pressing issue in the Middle East right now. :slanted:
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Here's a good reason why air strikes can't happen:

Fateh%20110.jpg


It's a Fateh-110 and Iran has been mass producing them in anticipation of strikes on their nuclear facilities. Why? Not for American or Israeli bases, but to hit Saudi oil production. Of course. The Iranians aren't dumb.

From launch, these missiles are minutes away from Ras Tanura, the site of the largest oil terminal in the world ("10 percent of the world's daily supply of petroleum flows"). It lies about 80km south of the Iranian coast.

Saudi_dhahran_rt_abqaiq_jubail.png
 
Last edited:
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Mr. Tea said:
Well, obviously it is *now*. I was talking more about the comments that mentioned 'Jew S of A', 'Amerikkka' and '9/11 truth' and, er, demanded the legalisation of marijuana. Which is clearly the most pressing issue in the Middle East right now. :slanted:
Click to expand...

Obviously? Not to me. Iraq doesn't exactly have a recent history of strong Arab-Jewish relations. I only know this as a consequence of reading Iraqi blogs and only mention it because the comments suggest that Iraq is being used by the US Empire that is being used in its turn by Mossad.

Generally pretty funny comments though.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Well I think it's not exactly beyond the realms of possibility that the wishes of the US government have a fairly strong sway on the policies of the Iraqi government, given the former country's military occupation of the latter. To put it mildly.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Also unlikely that Badr & SCIRI will sit by while the US lets Israel use Iraqi territory to launch attacks on Iran. (The Iranian government also has quite a strong sway with those parties it was instrumental in setting up).
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
noel emits said:
Saw that reported here as well.

Also from The Times yesterday -

President George W Bush has told the Israeli government that he may be prepared to approve a future military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if negotiations with Tehran break down, according to a senior Pentagon official.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article4322508.ece
Click to expand...

Fascinating game of bluff and double bluff innit - since it's in US interests for the threat against Iran (whether from them or Israel) to be as plausible as possible, it's highly likely that these stories were planted. The evidence against any attack looks persuasive, but I was talking to a mate at a party yesterday who works for Meryl Lynch who said their expert was hypothesising a possible scenario a few years down the line in which the US redoubles its Iraqi 'surge' and uses it as a base to invade Iran. He said the world banking system is on a precipice and the looming recession won't be like the early 90s or early 80s, but more like the 70s or even the 30s. It was a jolly do.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Nouriel Roubini had a project syndicate column about this last month. Pretty germane:

Stagflation requires a negative supply-side shock that increases prices while simultaneously reducing output. Stagflationary shocks led to global recession three times in the last 35 years: in 1973-1975, when oil prices spiked following the Yom Kippur War and OPEC embargo; in 1979-1980, following the Iranian Revolution; and in 1990-91, following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Even the 2001 recession – mostly triggered by the bursting high-tech bubble – was accompanied by a doubling of oil prices, following the start of the second Palestinian intifada against Israel.

Today, a stagflationary shock may result from an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. This geopolitical risk mounted in recent weeks as Israel has grown alarmed about Iran’s intentions. Such an attack would trigger sharp increases in oil prices – to well above $200 a barrel. The consequences of such a spike would be a major global recession, such as those of 1973, 1979, and 1990. Indeed, the most recent rise in oil prices is partly due to the increase in this fear premium.​
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
3 Body No Problem said:
And who would ever doubt a Merrill Lynch expert?
Click to expand...

Well they're paid vast sums of money to forecast the future prices of (in his case) oil by people who are staking even vaster sums on it. So if he wasn't right more often than not then he wouldn't be in the job he's in (though I appreciate the midst of a credit crunch isn't the ideal time - nor Dissensus the ideal place - to be saying this).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top