Mexico

[vimothy]

Given the political economy, there does not seem to be much hope for Mexico.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

perhaps this is the case; but then presumably (and i have nothing concrete with which to back this up) most of the nicaraguan, honduran and el salvadorean "illegals" in the US make the journey by land through Mexico -- a northwards flow of migrants thus affecting all borders to some degree (panama and costa rica are notable exceptions given i guess the relative wealth and order in these countries).

that is true - I don't know as much about it, & it wasn't my intent to argue for the integrity of intra-Central American borders by any means. though 1) that border (specifically the Pacific side - doesn't make a whole lot of sense to go through the Yucatan if you're headed to el norte) is a chokepoint & 2) it gets progressively worse the further north you get, people becoming increasingly desperate. it's just that on the Mex/US border, for all the Minutemen-type blathering, the really heavy stuff is pretty well, if not all, to the Mexican side.

add Belize to that list of exceptions.

also, one more unrelated thing, on the original topic - I've been pretty much all over Mexico & everywhere I've been a kind of order prevails, perhaps not always the govt's but order nonetheless. the major exception being (kind of) the border. this was not the case in Guatamala or ES (never been the rest of C America). I guess I'm just a little skeptical of this "failed state" business.

 

[Mr BoShambles]

Given the political economy, there does not seem to be much hope for Mexico.

Gotta wonder what has caused this escalation though. As padraig argued these problems have existed for decades. Is the contemporary situation a reflection of a a particularly corrupt regime? A slow cumulative build up? The information revolution which confers strategic advantages to non-state actors given their propensity for decentralised networking? All of the above? Something else entirely?

In comparison to other Central / Latin American states, historically Mexico has been relatively orderly -- at least in terms of coups, revolutions, civil-wars etc. Why has this deteriorated so visibly?

 

[vimothy]

Also noticed this, from the comments at Robb's site:

Another issue in Mexico is the falling peso. For about 6 years it hovered between 10 to 12 pesos per dollar but since late last year it's been falling. Yesterday it hit 15 pesos per dollar - making Mexico a bargain travel destination if it wasn't for the security risks.

I presume Mexico has a lot of debt in dollars?

 

[vimothy]

John Robb:

Simply, Mexico is in a guerrilla war and the majority (54%, in a recent Reforma poll) of the population thinks the narco-guerrillas are winning. Last month, the guerrillas decimated the senior staff of Mexico's law enforcement organizations and there are threats of more assassinations to come. In small towns, policemen are resigning en masse as the drug gangs continue their killing spree. Placards and banners are openly displayed in town streets promising death to the police that oppose the drug gangs and/or offers to recruit anybody with military experience.

Calderon's effort to crush the syndicates has backfired. As the top leadership of the syndicates were arrested or killed, a myriad of smaller and more violent groups have emerged to replace them (as predicted by global guerrilla theory). Currently, the groups are fighting each other more than the government, which has reduced their effectiveness. That will slowly change as territories are become fixed, connected to the primary loyalties of village or neighborhood. Eventually, a fully formed open source insurgency will emerge and the government might find itself only in command of the capital. At that point, Mexico will be a hollow state. A government in name only. This is going to be interesting to watch.

NOTE: The only existential threat the US faces in the near term, is from global guerrillas in Mexico and not the Middle East. A breakdown there could result in massive population movements, refugee centers, and the spread of guerrilla warfare into US border states.

There is also an ad for Skynet at Robb's site!

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Given the political economy, there does not seem to be much hope for Mexico.

???

Hope for Mexico to do (or not do what)?

No offense, & not that personal experiences trump think tank papers, but it's seems a little flip to read some stuff on Stratfor & then decide that an entire country doesn't "much hope". whatever that even means.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Officials getting rich off drug money. Tacit acceptance within the state institutions that the Mexican economy is fuelled in some part by drug money. An uneasy coexistence.

But where is the line drawn? How much power/control can the state elites afford to cede before they are in danger of fundamentally undermining the state apparatus itself and thus ultimately their own positions of authority?

this is probably the key question - I've never understood where that line is drawn, how closely tied the govt/military elites & the narcos are to each other - tho for that matter I doubt that most people who are experts on the issue really have a much better idea than any of us do.

there's another point here - I'm not advocating for the narcos at all & they do a lot of grisly, grisly stuff but frankly the official govt is not that much more appealing.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Gotta wonder what has caused this escalation though...Is the contemporary situation a reflection of a a particularly corrupt regime? A slow cumulative build up? The information revolution which confers strategic advantages to non-state actors given their propensity for decentralised networking? All of the above? Something else entirely?

In comparison to other Central / Latin American states, historically Mexico has been relatively orderly -- at least in terms of coups, revolutions, civil-wars etc. Why has this deteriorated so visibly?

I don't think it's this particular regime - I'm not sure how it could be any more corrupt than Mexican regimes usually are, especially the ones during the PRI's 70 yr run at the top.

I'd think one obv reason would be how closely the Mexico's economy is linked to that of the US, esp w/that stuff about the peso dropping in value even faster than the dollar.

 

[vimothy]

???

Hope for Mexico to do (or not do what)?

I'm not really thinking of Stratfor (and suspect you're giving me too much credit). I was thinking of political economy. But your question is related to the question of what the state wants, and suggests another: actually who is the state? We described a state's desires, but not its constituent parts.

 

[Mr BoShambles]

I don't think it's this particular regime - I'm not sure how it could be any more corrupt than Mexican regimes usually are, especially the ones during the PRI's 70 yr run at the top.

Again this is completely unsubstantiated conjecture -- but maybe one reason that things are so volatile now is precisely because the political system is more open with much increased competition. Has this created fragmentation, more competing/opposing interests, illicit alliances etc?

Just a thought....

 

[vimothy]

Why has this deteriorated so visibly?

Be interested to see data on changes in black-market revenue in Mexico. I wonder how the shadow/drug economy has changed over the last few decades.

 

[Mr BoShambles]

Be interested to see data on changes in black-market revenue in Mexico. I wonder how the shadow/drug economy has changed over the last few decades.

Any ideas where to get this? Black-market flows of capital must be hard to quantify -- you can only measure what you actually find... tip of the iceberg? Would be good to find some kind of study that documents the connections between the cartels and the politco-legal structure. Again though this is not something which those involved are gonna be shouting about.

 

[vimothy]

There is also this business with the 2006 elections. And then there is the business of the effect of an American (and global) recession on Mexico, given that the US provides about half of Mexican FDI and buys over 80% of its exports. Did someone say creeping protectionism? And I haven't even mentioned remittances.

 

[Mr BoShambles]

Just read that Robb extract properly... shit man that paints a bleak (potential) future

 

[vimothy]

This is conjecture, but surely these illicit flows currently dwarf any in Mexican history -- I do not see US demand for drugs doing anything but steeply rising since the '60s.

 

[vimothy]

Robb's a red team player, though. What he doesn't tell you is how likely the worst case is.

 

[Mr BoShambles]

Anyone know if there's a Mexican version of 'The Wire'? We'll find all our answers there

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Again this is completely unsubstantiated conjecture -- but maybe one reason that things are so volatile now is precisely because the political system is more open with much increased competition. Has this created fragmentation, more competing/opposing interests, illicit alliances etc?

Just a thought....

that is a thought. the PRI's long long run at the top must have been a stabilizing force, if also a stifling one. it's probably not coincidental that the PRI's (relative) fall from power came shortly after NAFTA (combined with other factors of course)...but that increased political volatility combined with these...

This is conjecture, but surely these illicit flows currently dwarf any in Mexican history -- I do not see US demand for drugs doing anything but steeply rising since the '60s.

There is also this business with the 2006 elections. And then there is the business of the effect of an American (and global) recession on Mexico, given that the US provides about half of Mexican FDI and buys over 80% of its exports.

though that's nothing new with the elections. the PRI didn't even really pretend when Salinas stole the election from Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas in '88 - which according to Marcos was the major catalyst for the growth of the EZLN which had been quite small up to then. also of course Colosio in '94, some people pointed the finger at the cartels for that one (others pointed at Salinas). which led to Zedillo, who now among other things works for Union Pacific whose Mexican railroads he privatized as prez - sorry, little off-topic, I just always find that one amusing.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Robb's a red team player, though. What he doesn't tell you is how likely the worst case is.

I read through his piece too - I mean, the stuff about narcos killing top cops/brazenly displaying their power alright - but it's quite a stretch to make an "existential threat" to the U.S. isn't it? & calling them "narco-guerrillas"? the leftist revolutionaries (who aside from the EZLN, which isn't really "revolutionary" in the same sense, have very little influence) & the narcos in Mexico are pretty well separate of each other aren't they (anyone have anything to the contrary?) - it's not about ideology but $. also I noticed he pushed "global guerrillas" as a brand which, I mean, whatever.

not that the picture's not bleak but even that Rand piece pulled up well short of flinging around "failed state" indiscriminately.

 

[scottdisco]

hmm.

i think my earlier intervention in this thread offered up a potentially false binary.
no matter.

Williams (p 95-6) on fighting transnational organised crime networks:

One other important component of the response to defeating criminal networks is that governments and law enforcement agencies, in effect, need to mimic network structures. One of the advantages criminal networks enjoy is that they are smart, future-oriented organizations locked in combat with governments that, by contrast, are often hobbled by a variety of constraints. Governments still operate along hierarchical lines and are further hindered by bureaucratic rivalry and competition, interagency antipathies, and a reluctance to share information and coordinate operations.​

a good thought from Williams, methinks.

i appreciate where Padraig is coming from, though i know none of us would disagree that violence in Mexico has leaped alarmingly recently (a 117% increase in murders there from 2007 to last year, for example).