Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[HMGovt’s Glorious Return!]

PCR testing / testing of those who were and remain asymptomatic

This unbidden in my feed, from Germany

 

[Mr. Tea]

UK positive test results chugging along at roughly 1%...which is pretty much the false positive rate...could it have disappeared?

There might be some mileage in this idea if the new diagnosis rate were more or less the same across the country, but it isn't. I agree that the pandemic is basically over in most areas but the upswing in national figures is due to localized new outbreaks in urban areas in the north, which is why those areas have gone back into lockdown.

 

[mixed_biscuits]

There might be some mileage in this idea if the new diagnosis rate were more or less the same across the country, but it isn't. I agree that the pandemic is basically over in most areas but the upswing in national figures is due to localized new outbreaks in urban areas in the north, which is why those areas have gone back into lockdown.

I think they might partly involve detecting inactive viral matter...so outbreaks that are partway through or all played out

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Re. false positives, they trap us in a situation with too many preventative measures eg. with no mitigations, a false positive result could shut a whole school; with some mitigations, it just sends a class or two home...so the measures remain .

Test 50 teachers with a false positive rate of 1%...there's a 40% chance someone will test positive.

So it's conceivable that if inadequate tests are rolled out and done on a weekly basis, all schools will shut by November in response to a threshold number of schools shutting.

Prediction: if the false positive issue is not recognised, we will be in a sector-specific national lockdown in November.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Right, but why are all these false positives appearing in the last few weeks, and specifically in Preston and Manchester?

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Because they ramped up testing there.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Because they ramped up testing there.

A move straight from the Donald Trump playbook!

 

[mixed_biscuits]

Don't be silly.

Presumably you think one shouldn't wear a mask because Trump wears one too?

 

[Mr. Tea]

Don't be silly.

Presumably you think one shouldn't wear a mask because Trump wears one too?

Come on, though. The only reason we're seeing increased cases in some areas is increased testing, the local lockdown measures are therefore pointless, and you're the only one smart enough to have figured this out?

 

[catalog]

Hang on, these local lockdowns up north are only happening cos there's increased testing up here? Why is there increased testing up here? Surely cos there was an spike to warrant that extra testing? Or why else would they bother? And why not increase testing everywhere?

 

[Mr. Tea]

And I'm being totally serious. "America has the most cases because we have the most testing" is literally what Trump said, and you're saying the same thing.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Hang on, these local lockdowns up north are only happening cos there's increased testing up here? Why is there increased testing up here? Surely cos there was an spike to warrant that extra testing? Or why else would they bother? And why not increase testing everywhere?

For the sake of your own sanity, do not attempt to penetrate the biscuit-logic!

 

[catalog]

But it sounds like you are also entertaining the biscuit logic. In 2 weeks time, are we all gonna be biscuits?

 

[Mr. Tea]

Preston and Manchester are in lockdown because testing has revealed a spike in cases, and they've had a spike in cases because of the increased testing.

Similarly, the national lockdown was brought in because the all-powerful media demanded it and the supine government kowtowed, and because the all-powerful government demanded it and the supine media kowtowed.

 

[Mr. Tea]

But it sounds like you are also entertaining the biscuit logic. In 2 weeks time, are we all gonna be biscuits?

Oh I'm a lost cause. Consider me a cautionary tale.

 

[catalog]

So, tea, do you think if they did increased testing in Exeter, it would also go into local lockdown?

 

[Mr. Tea]

So, tea, do you think if they did increased testing in Exeter, it would also go into local lockdown?

Well I like to think the people organising all this are intelligent enough to be aware of the false positive rate in the tests, and to understand that a lockdown would only be warranted if there were a statistically significant spike in the number of positive results. Clearly m_b has no such faith.

 

[catalog]

I'm not sure I have no faith at all that they would be doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons, but it certainly would not surprise me if it turned out that that was the case.

 

[vimothy]

if the false-positive rate is 1% and the positive rate is 1%, those two things don't cancel out. a false-positive rate of 1% doesn't explain an infection rate per test of 1%

 

[IdleRich]

Doesn't it though? I don't remember stats that well but looking at the definition of FP it's the number of wrong positives as a ratio of the total number of negatives. In other words if you had a population with no disease and a false positive ration of 1 percent then that would mean you get 1 percent positive on the test.