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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
So why did the death rate curve decline to almost zero for a long while if there was no herd immunity?
Sweden has great health care and is generally a very well developed country with a robust social safety net. That's no mystery at all.

Despite having a high rate of antibody prevalence compared to other countries, they are clearly still very far from herd immunity - and that's assuming "herd immunity" is even a valid concept for this disease, which it might not be, if reinfection turns out to be common.

You really are prepared to die on this hill, aren't you?
 

mixed_biscuits

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So the death rate sloped downwards to almost zero because they worked out how to prevent people from dying? Then why should we worry about a second wave or being short of HI...the Swedes could just give us their treatment regimes?
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
So the death rate sloped downwards to almost zero because they worked out how to prevent people from dying? Then why should we worry about a second wave or being short of HI...the Swedes could just give us their treatment regimes?
That would be considerably easier said than done, given the state of the NHS and the country as a whole.

And you're still deliberately ignoring the non-fatal effects of the disease.
 

mixed_biscuits

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Obviously, there are many, many possible infection pairs still available in Sweden but the reason for that decline was primarily group immunity within the available contacts at the time...similar thing happened in London.

I acknowledge the non-fatal effects but don't think they merit extraordinary measures.
 
So the death rate sloped downwards to almost zero because they worked out how to prevent people from dying? Then why should we worry about a second wave or being short of HI...the Swedes could just give us their treatment regimes?

They use Doxycycline now, hcq doesn't bind to the proteins as well, plus if fucks with blood pressure in older gentlemen. There are studies that seem to say it outperforms Remdesivir but there's more money in that I think. Then you get the steroid if you need a bigger kick up the arse.

This tier system would cause some serious unrest if it was applied properly but the south escaping sanction I see
 

mixed_biscuits

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I got the impression the SW was swamped with holidaymakers over summer but has had no uptick, London is largely immune and much of the SE continues to be largely untouched.
 
Think the lockdown moment has passed personally, don't think people will accept it now, but depends how bad it gets. I said a while back you can feel it getting mad, think by late November this country will be fucking horrific
 
I got the impression the SW was swamped with holidaymakers over summer but has had no uptick, London is largely immune and much of the SE continues to be largely untouched.

The medway towns are looking bad but I guess there's generally no city life in a lot of places down SE. The rate of transmission in London/Liverpool/Manc etc will always be far higher because there's more interaction whereas Kent for example is mostly people trapped in their bubbles instead.

Let's see what the brexit lorry park brings.
 
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mixed_biscuits

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The medway towns are looking bad but I guess there's generally no city life in a lot of places down SE.

Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk pretty much unscathed, which means there is a lot of dry tinder there...but it will only be fully ignited should everything go back to normal instantly, in every sense...with life dampened down as it is now, they're pretty secure.
 
Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk pretty much unscathed, which means there is a lot of dry tinder there...but it will only be fully ignited should everything go back to normal instantly, in every sense...with life dampened down as it is now, they're pretty secure.

I would have thought there was a lot of Essex indirectly involved in the London massacres earlier in the year but who knows. Suffolk & Norfolk I have only ever drove through so fuck knows.

I did see that Manchester Uni had 1155 cases in the last week alone, that's pretty mental. I guess they're viewed as collateral damage at this point

Mad country
 

vimothy

yurp
my impression here is that large numbers of ppl are just ignoring the restrictions, which is why they've been so ineffective.
 

mixed_biscuits

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Well, there's also the thing that we're trying to corral something that is utterly microscopic and can float around in trillions over miles.

Which makes the whole track and trace thing a bit pie-in-the-sky.
 

version

Well-known member
They're making more money than they ever have by becoming Chinese PPE resellers
 

mixed_biscuits

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I did see that Manchester Uni had 1155 cases in the last week alone, that's pretty mental. I guess they're viewed as collateral damage at this point

The IFR for 20-somethings is very low and I would imagine that the proportion with ensuing long Covid would be lower than the general population too.

I bet a good number of those cases are either lapsed infections from summer or infections preceding coming to uni tho; if not, the R within those settings would be insanely high.
 
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