In Liz We Truss
- Thread starter william kent
- Start date
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I've seen some projections giving them either two (2), or none at all.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Well the YouGov survey the other day put Labour on 54%, which is surely not realistic if there were to be an election, but consider previous landslides:
* the Tories under Thatcher got nearly twice as many seats as Labour in 1983, almost 400, with only 42% of the vote.
* Labour under Blair got a huge landslide in 1997 with 43%.
* and the Tories wiped the floor with Labour again three years ago, again with 43% of the vote.
So it's not at inconceivable that one party getting well over half the popular vote would mean the virtual extinction of the other main party, when you consider that other party would be getting far less than 46% of the vote, because people will still be voting for the SNP, Lib Dems, etc.
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Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I just went to Google and got as far as typing 'shortest', and the first suggestion was 'shortest serving prime minister', so clearly lots of people have also been wondering if Thick Lizzy is going to set a new British record.
(George Canning, 119 days in 1827, if you were wondering.)
(George Canning, 119 days in 1827, if you were wondering.)
sufi
lala
Yeah so they have bad intentions but also bad execution,
Not only did they propose a highly unprogressive redistribution of income, as they always said they would,
they didnt do the planning, so as soon as they announced their plan, investors and speculators rushed in to exploit its weaknesses, ie long term gilt futures, which would have destroyed the value of private pensions very quickly had the bank of England not done some rapid Quantitative Easing/printing a load more money, which will boost inflation, obvs, though I think they are reluctant to call it qe for some reason.
sufi
lala
I've been reading ft and watching industry
sufi
lala
IdleRich
IdleRich
You conceivably could have it so that the Tories got 49% of the vote in every seat, in 350 of them Labour got 51% and in the rest Libs got 51%, that would mean that the Tories won 49% of the vote and got my far the most votes but they would have no seats at all and Labour and LDs would share them all with about 25% each... but that is extremely unlikely. I've seen projections of Tories getting 62 up to 69 seats as things stand now, which would be fucking hilarious in itself.
william kent
Well-known member
We could end up with a Lib Dem or SNP opposition at this rate.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I don't know how it's calculated, but I've seen people claiming the predicted results of one or two Tory seats from Electoral Calculus, which presumably takes into account all the things you've just mentioned.
IdleRich
IdleRich
What's funny is that all the last few PMs have been keeping an eye on that to make sure they beat it.
jenks
thread death
Canning at least died in office and wasn’t booted out - although he did help split the party. Like Truss he had been Foreign Secretary but unlike her he appears to have been quite competent…and he had a duel with Castlereagh which meant they could never serve in the same cabinet together.
That is actually possible.
I think their brand is too fucked now to win though - though piggs might fly and that could change - but the important thing is how to get rid of them quickly which is the difficult bit.