global financial crash yay!

IdleRich

IdleRich
It's mentioned in passing on this website

http://freethinkingeconomist.com/2010/04/30/if-the-answer-is-helicopter-money-how-do-you-sell-it/

And check out the Australian cheques. Very early in the financial crisis, the Aussie govt mailed out cheques to everyone. Looks to me like a helicopter drop. And Australia did very well compared to other countries. Did the cheques check the recession? Dunno. Maybe.
Struggling to find much more but there must be something about it somewhere. I would have thought it was a fairly significant experiment.
 

luka

Well-known member
why not ask me? i will tell you. i got sent a grand by kevin rudd. my girlfriend got 2 grand.
 

vimothy

yurp
The banks are already cut out by design. Forget about them, because they're not really relevant.

What the BoE means by "QE" is the Bank(oE) buys (mostly) gilts from (mostly) pension funds, holds them until conditions improve, and then unwinds the programme by selling them back to the pension funds. That's basically all there is to it.

In principle what this does is increase the amount of money in the economy and reduce the amount of safe bonds, so that the people who hold the money and who used to hold the bonds need to find a new asset for their portfolio. As they try to get rid of this money, they will bid up the price of substitute assets, which means that yields come down and long term interest rates are low.

When the Bank unwinds this programme, it should have the reverse effect.

[In reality the Bank has less control over the money supply than this suggests, but that's another story.]

Well it doesn't matter if it's the central bank or the government.

Well, it certainly matters to the central bank and the government! If you propose something that is not possible with the institutions we presently have, then it's unlikely to happen.

The Bank cannot simply issue liabilities and hand them out gratis to all and sundry (i.e. print money and give it away) because then it would be insolvent very quickly, and this is not a good look for a central bank.

And check out the Australian cheques. Very early in the financial crisis, the Aussie govt mailed out cheques to everyone. Looks to me like a helicopter drop.

Right--Australian government, but not the Australian central bank. Mailing out checks is fiscal policy, using either borrowed money or tax revenue. (If you want to fund something like that via money creation, then you could do it via direct debt monetisation, but I doubt the Aussies did that). The US govt (not the Fed) also mailed out checks to people (a tax rebate) in the early days of the crisis, if you recall.
 

luka

Well-known member
australia was nevr in danger of recession so how do you measure such a thing? presumably it produced a spike in retail spending. i used my to go to london and boost my native economy which needed it more.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
"Well, it certainly matters to the central bank and the government! If you propose something that is not possible with the institutions we presently have, then it's unlikely to happen."
It doesn't matter in terms of the original question I asked I mean.
We have a central bank and a government. Are you saying it's not possible or just saying that it is conceivable that there is a reason for it to not be possible?

"The Bank cannot simply issue liabilities and hand them out gratis to all and sundry (i.e. print money and give it away) because then it would be insolvent very quickly, and this is not a good look for a central bank"
Presumably there is a level at which it could afford to do this as a one-off without going under though. I mean no-one is saying that it should give all its money away all of the time, I'm just asking what would happen if it made a one-off payment (also can't it just print more money?). Anyway, this is a digression because the question is the same even if we assume the bank can't or won't do it but the government can.

"Right--Australian government, but not the Australian central bank. Mailing out checks is fiscal policy, using either borrowed money or tax revenue. (If you want to fund something like that via money creation, then you could do it via direct debt monetisation, but I doubt the Aussies did that). The US govt (not the Fed) also mailed out checks to people (a tax rebate) in the early days of the crisis, if you recall."
But presumably a tax rebate is related to how much tax you paid(?) and is therefore not so redistributive and not a lot of use to, say, those who are unemployed and haven't paid tax. The Australian thing sounds more radical.
 

vimothy

yurp
I think the Australian thing was just a tax credit as well. This is a fairly standard idea. It's not the same as having the central bank print money and send it out to people.

When people talk about helicopter drops and the central bank printing money they have in mind a model of an economy that doesn't quite match the real world.

Since the govt owns the central bank, any losses have to born by the govt. So if the central bank issues money unbacked by assets, then its liabilities exceed its assets and it is insolvent, and the treasury has to recapitalise it (meaning that the taxpayer has to recapitalise it). It's not clear what this buys you.

If the treasury wanted to do some money funded stimulus it could do so, simply by selling bonds directly to the central bank, which is not allowed at present. But it's conceivable that if conditions became bad enough, policy makers would get more radical and this would become an option. Then the treasury could either spend the money itself or post it out to everyone.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
Bush did a monetary giveaway didn't he? It was only a few hundred dollars but IIRC was designed to boost spending etc. No idea how this was funded though...
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I think the Australian thing was just a tax credit as well. This is a fairly standard idea. It's not the same as having the central bank print money and send it out to people.
But doesn't that mean that (say) unemployed people wouldn't get anything? Seems to be different from how it was described in the things that I read although maybe that was due to an inpreciseness in the language rather than because how it was was actually different. What makes you say that you think it was just a tax credit? I'd like to know for definite I guess.

"Since the govt owns the central bank, any losses have to born by the govt. So if the central bank issues money unbacked by assets, then its liabilities exceed its assets and it is insolvent, and the treasury has to recapitalise it (meaning that the taxpayer has to recapitalise it). It's not clear what this buys you."
I don't really get this, we basically have fiat money so it doesn't have to be backed by anything does it? What am I misunderstanding?
Also not all central banks are government owned (eg the Federal Reserve).

"If the treasury wanted to do some money funded stimulus it could do so, simply by selling bonds directly to the central bank, which is not allowed at present. But it's conceivable that if conditions became bad enough, policy makers would get more radical and this would become an option. Then the treasury could either spend the money itself or post it out to everyone."
OK, that's probably the answer I'm asking for - what are the effects likely to be? Also, what is it that prevents it from doing that now? Is it a law or what? What was the rationale for that law?
Sorry, lots of questions...

As an aside - from the Guardian and having some bearing on what you were saying earlier about what the BofE is in the business of doing.

The bank (of England) could buy up the bad debts on the books of the banks, invest in social housing, lend the cash direct to small firms, or build all of the government's latest wave of offshore wind farms. But Sir Mervyn is a monetary policy purist and wouldn't consider any of those things to be the BofE's job.
 

vimothy

yurp
But doesn't that mean that (say) unemployed people wouldn't get anything? Seems to be different from how it was described in the things that I read although maybe that was due to an inpreciseness in the language rather than because how it was was actually different. What makes you say that you think it was just a tax credit? I'd like to know for definite I guess.

See e.g. here, "Guide to the 2009 Australian Government Stimulus Package Handouts":

How much stimulus money will you get?

It depends on what your total income from all sources was last year. The payment will be:

$900 if your taxable income is up to and including $80,000
$600 if your taxable income is between $80,001 and $90,000, and
$250 if your taxable income is between $90,001 and $100,000.

There are some exclusions, however:

You must have paid at least some tax in the year 2007-2008 to qualify. If you earned less than the tax free threshold of $6,000 last year you will not receive a payment.
If you earned more than $100,000 last year you won't receive a benefit payment.
You must be over 18 to qualify.

The govt is not constrained in the same way that the central bank is though. If it wanted to tax or borrow money and then transfer it to unemployed people, it could certainly do this. Does do this, in fact.

I don't really get this, we basically have fiat money so it doesn't have to be backed by anything does it? What am I misunderstanding?

All money is backed by something. So in that sense, fiat money doesn't actually exist.

You can think of money as coming in two flavours. The first flavour is central bank money (known as narrow money, base money, high power money, outside money, etc). The second flavour is bank money (broad money, inside money, etc).

Regardless of the type, money is always a liability of the issuer and an asset of the holder. It is a fundamental principle of financial accounting that liabilities cannot exceed assets. When the central bank issues money as part of its normal everyday operations, it acquires assets in the form of govt securities like gilts.

So the central bank adds money by purchasing bonds, expanding its balance sheet, and withdraws money by selling bonds, contracting its balance sheet.

When a private banks issues money—a deposit—it acquires an asset—a loan—so that it too follows the same rule.

The cash in your wallet is ultimately backed by the assets on the Bank of England's balance sheet, just like the deposits you hold at your bank are backed by the assets on its balance sheet.

Also not all central banks are government owned (eg the Federal Reserve).

Well, the Fed is pretty unique, and its ownership structure is quite complicated. It has private and public components. Still, any losses on the Fed's balance sheet (e.g. on the the Maiden Lane portfolio) will have to be born by the Treasury.

OK, that's probably the answer I'm asking for - what are the effects likely to be? Also, what is it that prevents it from doing that now? Is it a law or what? What was the rationale for that law?

People think that this will be very inflationary, which is why modern central banks are independent of the govt and prevented by law from buying debt directly from it.

One issue that worries central bankers in particular is inflation expectations. If the public lose faith in the central bank as an independent entity then it might lose faith in the currency as an asset of value.

On the other hand there are those who think that a burst of high inflation would pull the economy out of a deflationary hole and there are even those who think who think that govt can fund its spending via money creation without causing inflation.

Sorry, lots of questions...

It's alright. This stuff is a bit convoluted.

As an aside - from the Guardian and having some bearing on what you were saying earlier about what the BofE is in the business of doing.

What they are saying is that the Bank of England should act like a private bank. Make loans, etc. The Bank is still capitalised and losses are born by the taxpayer (not that unlike, ahem, some "private" banks we have...). What isn't clear is what advantages the Bank of England would have over existing banks, and what benefit this new system would get you.
 

Sectionfive

bandwagon house
tbf though, there can only ever be so much real value out there to back currencies.

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Good piece here in straight forward enough language

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111010.htm

Undoubtedly, one of the greatest rhetorical victories of Wall Street has been to successfully plant in the minds of the public the idea that some financial institutions are simply "too big to fail," and that the "failure" of "systemically important" institutions will result in global financial meltdown and Depression.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"All money is backed by something. So in that sense, fiat money doesn't actually exist."
Well, digressing further and further here but surely that's not true. If I set up a currency for my group of slaves and order them to honour it then it's backed by nothing but my fiat isn't it?
 

Sectionfive

bandwagon house
Hoping to get up to Dublin at the weekend. Camp set up outside the central bank since Saturday. The IMF representative got the keys to his office a few stories up from the camp today. Early days and evolving so far but plenty of good will coming from local business and passers by. I really can't even explain how big a problem we are facing here but I'm sure you understand. It's foolish to think we could effect any change but it's a massive boost to see the start of something.



460_0___30_0_0_0_0_0_316138_296158837076603_132000150159140_1274144_936950387_n.jpg
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Nice one. I've read a bit about the Irish situation here - http://newleftreview.org/?view=2876 - which I thought was a very good article, also very scary.

Who knows what can result, but at this point there's no excuse for not trying :) Things will get worse if the current system of corporate influence over politics is allowed to continue unchallenged.
 
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Sectionfive

bandwagon house
The places and people who help Barclays ‘minimize’ its taxes.

http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/10/the-places-and-people-who-help-barclays-minimize-its-taxes/

I decided to look at Barclays and its 174 subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands. First one of the 174 companies I looked at was Bors Investments Ltd. Bors is listed as registered at PO Box 309 Ugland House, Grand Cayman. A PO Box seemed odd for a subsidiary of the mighty Barclays but I went on. Next I looked at was Braven Investments Ltd. It too was registered at PO Box 309 in Ugland House. Must be quite a box, I thought. -I skipped down the list first to Mintaka Investments and then to Azzoli and finally to Zemedee Investments Ltd. They were all registered at Box 309 at Ugland House.

In fact 18,857 companies and ‘entities’ are registered there
 
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