Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

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mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

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Mr. Tea said:
I think a better objection is that it was developed for treating parasitic worms, not viruses, let alone coronaviruses in particular, let alone this particular coronavirus.
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That's not a scientific objection (no paper takes this line): you're just proving my point
 
Slothrop

Slothrop

Tight but Polite
In case anyone's interested in the actual models that SAGE were considering, there's a comparison of them vs actual hospitalization data at the end of this page:

UK COVID-19 Tracker

russss.github.io

My guess is that the source that Biscuits was using had deliberately cherry picked the Imperial model, which seems to have been by far the most pessimistic in terms of the size of the exit wave, in order to make a dishonest argument about the untrustworthiness of models.
 
Slothrop

Slothrop

Tight but Polite
If, unlike Biscuits, anyone is actually interested in this stuff, my uneducated guess would be that the LSHTM models are roughly on the money apart from underestimating either the effect of the weather (more outdoor mixing and better ventilation in summer, more indoor mixing and closed windows in winter) or how cautiously people would go back to normal after "freedom day", so the initial summer peak was somewhat overstated but we're now in a worse position than they anticipated.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
mixed_biscuits said:
Strawman
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Not remotely. You must believe that pharma companies have some sort of hold over governments - which isn't implausible in the case of very small, poor countries, but risible if you're talking about the USA, China, Japan, Germany... - because why else would they be paying for expensive vaccines rather than using cheap generic drugs?
 
mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Mr. Tea said:
Not remotely. You must believe that pharma companies have some sort of hold over governments - which isn't implausible in the case of very small, poor countries, but risible if you're talking about the USA, China, Japan, Germany... - because why else would they be paying for expensive vaccines rather than using cheap generic drugs?
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You'll find that the pipeline for treatment approval is very narrow in places: easy for something to go awry at these points
 
mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Slothrop said:
In case anyone's interested in the actual models that SAGE were considering, there's a comparison of them vs actual hospitalization data at the end of this page:

UK COVID-19 Tracker

russss.github.io

My guess is that the source that Biscuits was using had deliberately cherry picked the Imperial model, which seems to have been by far the most pessimistic in terms of the size of the exit wave, in order to make a dishonest argument about the untrustworthiness of models.
Click to expand...
Imperial's models have been pivotal so it's hardly disingenuous. Have you heard of a certain Neil Ferguson? Now read his papers and tell us which basic assumptions are wholly unwarranted, resulting in a biased output
 
mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

_________________________
Slothrop said:
In case anyone's interested in the actual models that SAGE were considering, there's a comparison of them vs actual hospitalization data at the end of this page:

UK COVID-19 Tracker

russss.github.io

My guess is that the source that Biscuits was using had deliberately cherry picked the Imperial model, which seems to have been by far the most pessimistic in terms of the size of the exit wave, in order to make a dishonest argument about the untrustworthiness of models.
Click to expand...
Those models are flat out incorrect, all of them - the figures have not followed the curve-fitting they did
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
mixed_biscuits said:
You'll find that the pipeline for treatment approval is very narrow in places: easy for something to go awry at these points
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Is this an admission that the process for assessing something like a vaccine or anti-viral treatment is actually pretty rigorous?
 
HMGovt’s Glorious Return!

HMGovt’s Glorious Return!

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Mr. Tea said:
Not remotely. You must believe that pharma companies have some sort of hold over governments - which isn't implausible in the case of very small, poor countries, but risible if you're talking about the USA, China, Japan, Germany... - because why else would they be paying for expensive vaccines rather than using cheap generic drugs?
Click to expand...
Your naivety is off the scale. Pharma is the largest industrial lobbyist in Washington.
www.biopharmadive.com

Pfizer, Amgen, Lilly spent most to lobby Congress, study finds

Spending by the industry ramped up at key times, including around the 2016 presidential election and just before the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
www.biopharmadive.com www.biopharmadive.com

There's also a revolving door between Pfizer and the FDA and NIH. Probably the CDC too, haven't checked.
 
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