mixed_biscuits
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Null hypothesis is that lockdowns did nothing of the sort - thanks, Sweden!
Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)
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Leo
Well-known member
I used to have their first album.
Leo
Well-known member
if you don't kick from it before then, old geezers have to be careful.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Then why did new cases in the UK rapidly fall in early January, immediately after the new lockdown was introduced?
Hell of a coincidence, if they were totally unconnected.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Is that because you choose to live in fear? Like a timid, cowering sheeple?
wild greens
Well-known member
freedom is not looking at any graphs at all
mixed_biscuits
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As I pointed out before re. the regional tier lockdowns, they wait for the increases to reach the point of inflection (where the rate of change starts decreasing) before implementing the measure; the lockdowns appear preventative as they precede the peak but in fact they're reactive to the inflection point's arrival.
Sweden has shown that lockdowns are not necessary to output the same trends.
On the contrary, belmist.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
@mixed_biscuits
That's because you've made an a priori decision that lockdowns don't slow infection and have interpreted the data accordingly. Your model is unfalsifiable, because a continued increase after a lockdown would obviously disprove that lockdowns work, while a fall in infections after a lockdown is "because they were going to fall anyway" (why?).
If your model can explain both a phenomenon and the opposite of that phenomenon, it's a pretty poor model.
And it's obvious by now that we'd be even more fucked if we'd gone down the Swedish route.
That's because you've made an a priori decision that lockdowns don't slow infection and have interpreted the data accordingly. Your model is unfalsifiable, because a continued increase after a lockdown would obviously disprove that lockdowns work, while a fall in infections after a lockdown is "because they were going to fall anyway" (why?).
If your model can explain both a phenomenon and the opposite of that phenomenon, it's a pretty poor model.
And it's obvious by now that we'd be even more fucked if we'd gone down the Swedish route.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I hereby crown you the insult king of Year 7.
mixed_biscuits
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You didn't quite read what I had written...they have been introducing lockdowns once the indicators' rate of increase starts slowing...ie. once we were about to peak and decline anyway.
As lockdowns have little effect (especially once the virus is widespread, as it was as the first lockdown was introduced), we pretty much did a Sweden anyway, but with massive collateral damage thrown on top.
Remember that the Tories have no interest in doing the right thing, only in staying in power.
There are countless papers saying that lockdowns are pointless and the WHO has been telling us to stop using them as a control measure. It is really important that we don't carry on incarcerating ourselves for no good reason but we are in charge of this: as long as we believe that they're important, the Tories will continue to use it in order to pander to us.
mRNA vaccination leaves recipients more vulnerable to infection from variants
www.medrxiv.org
Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been raging for over a year, creating global detrimental impact. The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has demonstrated high protection levels, yet apprehension exists that several variants of concerns (VOCs) can surmount the immune defenses generated by the vaccines...
www.medrxiv.org
mixed_biscuits
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Vaccines turning up as the target variants are on the way out in order to tee up the next ones for a winter from hell.
WashYourHands
Cat Malogen
mRNA vaccination leaves recipients more vulnerable to infection from variants
Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been raging for over a year, creating global detrimental impact. The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine has demonstrated high protection levels, yet apprehension exists that several variants of concerns (VOCs) can surmount the immune defenses generated by the vaccines...
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
@mixed_biscuits what's your proposed explanation for the infection rate, which had been climbing rapidly, suddenly turning over and falling like a stone in January?
mixed_biscuits
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It was going to do that anyway, as happened in Sweden and pretty much all of Europe.
If Sweden's had carried on rising or flatlined, then maybe...but the trends are too similar to be able to discern a lockdown effect.
What's your explanation for Sweden's winter spike not maxxing out?
Furthermore, if deaths are preponderantly of old and sick people and transmission to them is mainly in health settings, there was no 'health-setting specific lockdown' to put the brakes on those contexts.
If Sweden's had carried on rising or flatlined, then maybe...but the trends are too similar to be able to discern a lockdown effect.
What's your explanation for Sweden's winter spike not maxxing out?
Furthermore, if deaths are preponderantly of old and sick people and transmission to them is mainly in health settings, there was no 'health-setting specific lockdown' to put the brakes on those contexts.
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