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mixed_biscuits

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@Slothrop That's not true: they are comparing vaccinated or unvaccinated carriers and show 8x the incidence of B.1.351 for Full-Effectiveness (ie. double-dose) vaccinees:

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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
It was going to do that anyway, as happened in Sweden and pretty much all of Europe.

If Sweden's had carried on rising or flatlined, then maybe...but the trends are too similar to be able to discern a lockdown effect.

What's your explanation for Sweden's winter spike not maxxing out?

Furthermore, if deaths are preponderantly of old and sick people and transmission to them is mainly in health settings, there was no 'health-setting specific lockdown' to put the brakes on those contexts.
Stop wanking over Sweden for five minutes, will you? Cases are rising in Germany and France. In a number of other W European countries they're either rising or just starting to fall again after rising for the last few months.

In fact I've just checked Sweden and their cases have been rising continually since late Jan. Their death rate remains low because they're much healthier than we are and presumably haven't got a health service that limps along in a state of permanent crisis.

So, again, what *specific* mechanism caused the rapid fall-off *in the UK* within a few days of the new lockdown?

"It was going to anyway" is not an explanation, btw.
 

Slothrop

Tight but Polite
Yes. "Comparing carriers" is the key phrase there - not comparing people. They're saying that someone who has been vaccinated and has been infected is disproportionately likely to have been infected with a variant, because the vaccine is more effective against vanilla than against the variants. This says nothing about the rate of infection or likelihood of infection with the variants among all vaccinated people versus all nonvaccinated people.

How do you think they arrive at their conclusion:
"These results overall suggest that vaccine breakthrough infection is more frequent with both VOCs, yet a combination of mass-vaccination with two doses coupled with non-pharmaceutical interventions [will] control and contain their spread."
 

mixed_biscuits

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@Slothrop I see what you mean. Best case is that the 8x difference is showing 8x better protection from the target variant from the additional second jab.

hmm...but we know that two rather than one jab is supposed to be at most x2 more effective max so there is still a potential problem with the incidence. (tho they do say that the sample sizes are too small)
 
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chava

Well-known member
Seems Denmark suspends AZ altogether. With J&J on hold as well, there's no hope on the horizon for us under 50s types. Meanwhile the mRNA vacc'ed boomers are looking forward to spend the remaining year in their newly acquired summer residencies bought with their NASDAQ invested pension funds. Yay.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Six suspected blood clots (edit: ONE of which has killed someone!) from the J&J vaccine out of nearly 7,000,000 administered doses, and the vaccine is on hold because the "we choose not to live in fear" brigade think it's going to kill them.

Humans really, really, really suck at assessing risks.
 
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mixed_biscuits

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Whatever brakes they're applying is not because of peer pressure from the general public: it's clearly a procedure that is routine because any surprising adverse effects show that they don't understand how the vaccine works precisely and that wider problems may apply eg. the media have also reported many women having changes to their periods, also a blood issue.
 

chava

Well-known member
Six suspected blood clots from the J&J vaccine out of nearly 7,000,000 administered doses, and the vaccine is on hold because the "we choose not to live in fear" brigade think it's going to kill them.

Humans really, really, really suck at assessing risks.
DK/NO reports 1/40000 wrt AZ, so probably not insignificant
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
DK/NO reports 1/40000 wrt AZ, so probably not insignificant
They've no doubt prioritized the elderly and unwell though, right? A fraction of those people will die in any given people, vaccine or no vaccine.

And again, even if you're going to be as pessimistic as possible and assume every single apparent reaction really was caused by the vaccine, it's still many hundreds of times safer than catching the virus.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Do you have the protocol for unanticipated vaccine harms during an ongoing trial?

If they're departing from that protocol then maybe you're right, but you need to prove it.
Typical deflection there. Your statement that trials aren't being disrupted due to public pressure is demonstrably false. There are widespread anti-vaxx movements all over the world. I shouldn't have to point this out to you, since you're obviously sympathetic to them yourself, regardless of whether you're out there waving a placard.
 

Leo

Well-known member
Also it doesn't say that vaccination leaves you more vulnerable to infection from variants than if you hadn't been vaccinated - just that it leaves you more vulnerable to infection from variants than you are to infection from "vanilla" covid.

@mixed_biscuits must be in PR, posts lots of spinning that on the surface seems to support his POV but then things aren't quite how he depicted once you dig in a bit.
 
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