Election 2020
I think his majority will greatly increase. Biden is a terrible, terrible candidate. It'll be more like the 2019 UK general election than the 2017 "Corbyn breakthrough". The media will have a complete breakdown over it. Again.
Something like this
Leo
Well-known member
urrr, that sounds like s stretch. but if the pro-trump world wants to go with that as a rationale, good luck.
just as likely that lots of republican voters hated hillary in 2016, thought "ah, what the hell, how bad could it be?" and have now seen how bad it can be, so they either vote for biden or sit out the election, and then look to get back to being a conservative, less mental party moving forward.
john eden
male pale and stale
I mean he IS terrible you are right. But is he worse than Hilary?
With Trump surely some of the novelty has worn off now and people who thought they might give him the benefit of the doubt have seen enough of him?
Fucked if I know.
Leo
Well-known member
biden is far from a great candidate, but to a lot of people he represents a return to a more sane, normal time when the president didn't tweet conspiracy theory nonsense 50 times a day instead of doing his job. also, lots of people actively hated hillary, whereas biden doesn't generate that sentiment.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
The question, surely, is not whether Biden is per-se good or bad - or rather, bad or terrible - but whether he's worse than Trump. I don't really see how he could be. And it's not just about the presidency, it's about whether one party or the other controls the Senate and the House, which will determine whether that president can actually do anything or not. And the Repulicans under Trump have just gone so far off the rails under Trump that I don't see how even an extremely lousy Democratic president could be anything other than preferable.
And who knows? Maybe Biden will surprise us all by being mediocre rather than lousy.
And who knows? Maybe Biden will surprise us all by being mediocre rather than lousy.
I don't know. Maybe the Americans are enjoying the novelty of not being dragged into pointless wars and peace breaking out in the middle east. That probably never gets old.
Come on, man! He's had 4 decades of mediocrity, it wouldn't be a surprise. Plus, he's a proper old school democrat racist, as well as a Chinese placeman.
constant escape
winter withered, warm
I mean, I do get the sense that Biden/Harris align with forces more favored by capitalism, but perhaps that is more of a metaphysical feelings than a economic/materialist one.
That is, if we are building toward a globalist neoliberal green woke capitalism, then any such trends as Trump would just be pockets of counter-current within the larger current, no?
That said, I just voted for Biden/Harris. Not without reservations, of course. But the kind of global hegemony I just mentioned seems, all things considered, closer to the optimal than we've been so far. Again, much more of a metaphysical prescience than an empirical claim.
That is, if we are building toward a globalist neoliberal green woke capitalism, then any such trends as Trump would just be pockets of counter-current within the larger current, no?
That said, I just voted for Biden/Harris. Not without reservations, of course. But the kind of global hegemony I just mentioned seems, all things considered, closer to the optimal than we've been so far. Again, much more of a metaphysical prescience than an empirical claim.
constant escape
winter withered, warm
Or spans of backstepping or sidestepping within a larger trajectory, a sort of braking mechanism, negative feedback, etc.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Sigh.
Again, is he more racist than Trump, the president who has consistently courted the far right for four years?
And is there actually anything to tie Biden to China, except clams by Trump and Giuliani? I mean what actually is the evidence?
john eden
male pale and stale
There is some fun to be had with
It's not about who is preferable to you though Tea. It's about what motivates American voters.
Trump energises people in a way that Biden can only dream of.
Sensible centrism has bitten the dust, hence Brexit, Boris, Corbyn, Trump, Farage, far right nutters all over Europe.
It's not about who is preferable to you though Tea. It's about what motivates American voters.
Trump energises people in a way that Biden can only dream of.
Sensible centrism has bitten the dust, hence Brexit, Boris, Corbyn, Trump, Farage, far right nutters all over Europe.
We're clearly tuned into different realities, there's little point arguing. Use a search engine other than Google, maybe duckduckgo, and type "Biden racist"
Voilà
Voilà
constant escape
winter withered, warm
Arguably, giving a convincing anti-racist performance will suffice in mitigating much of what anti-racism seeks to mitigate, no? I think I can make a serious case here.
That would be the unconscious, or perhaps occasionally conscious, logic behind much of (neo)liberalism, that enfranchisement might actually prove lucrative to more than those who are being enfranchised. It would open up markets within those communities that capitalism has largely marginalized until now, or at least has only indirectly extracted value from.
That would be the unconscious, or perhaps occasionally conscious, logic behind much of (neo)liberalism, that enfranchisement might actually prove lucrative to more than those who are being enfranchised. It would open up markets within those communities that capitalism has largely marginalized until now, or at least has only indirectly extracted value from.
constant escape
winter withered, warm
That is, if this kind of neoliberal woke capitalism ends up securing some kind of global(ist) hegemony, it really could level a lot of playing fields. The crux is whether or not genuine social liberalism will prove more lucrative than merely the appearance/performance of social liberalism. Arguably.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Thanks John, but I was aware of all those things. My post was a response to HMG, who apparently thinks Biden will be much worse than Trump because it's the Democrats and their BLM chums who are causing all the racism, etc. etc.
Yes, Biden is fundamentally quite boring, that's abundantly obvious.
john eden
male pale and stale
droid
Well-known member
Hey John,
Firstly, sentiment. Leo is right. Americans want a safe, calm, boring president, they are sick of the Trump's constant bullshit. Covid is probably the major issue. Trump has shown that he is unable or unwilling to deal with it and its raging across the country at the moment, especially in the North Eastern states like Wisconsin.
Secondly, fundamentals. The economy is tanked, and Trump's popularity rating is 43% and has never risen above the mid-40s.
Third, demographics. Trump has lost a significant amount of support amongst suburban women, seniors, white non college educated voters, and white voters overall in return for some very modest gains with Hispanic and Black voters. Biden is higher amongst all of the most reliable voting demographics, higher in independents and has probably taken a reasonable amount of moderate Republicans.
Fourth, early turnout. It's impossible to make definitive judgements on this but generally this unprecedented amount of turnout would be bad for an incumbent and good for the democrats and it looks like we are looking at 150-165 million total, which is nearly in record territory Texas has already reached 100% of its 2016 turnout and the youth vote seems to be up. Jon Ralston has more or less already called Nevada for Biden based on county level analysis of turnout.
Lastly, polling. As it stands Biden is at about 10+ in the national poll average. He is ahead in nearly all swing states by between +1 to +6. Most crucially, district polling, which correctly predicted Trump's victory is all pointing the right way for Biden. For Trump to win we would need to see a 2x or 3x increase in the polling error from 2016.
Trump does have a very narrow path to victory which is predicated on him maintaining all of the states he won in 2016 and then using the supreme court to cancel ballot counting in Pennsylvania and some other states that have slow counts, but the most likely result at the moment is a Biden victory, with a Biden landslide more likely than a Trump win.
Firstly, sentiment. Leo is right. Americans want a safe, calm, boring president, they are sick of the Trump's constant bullshit. Covid is probably the major issue. Trump has shown that he is unable or unwilling to deal with it and its raging across the country at the moment, especially in the North Eastern states like Wisconsin.
Secondly, fundamentals. The economy is tanked, and Trump's popularity rating is 43% and has never risen above the mid-40s.
Third, demographics. Trump has lost a significant amount of support amongst suburban women, seniors, white non college educated voters, and white voters overall in return for some very modest gains with Hispanic and Black voters. Biden is higher amongst all of the most reliable voting demographics, higher in independents and has probably taken a reasonable amount of moderate Republicans.
Fourth, early turnout. It's impossible to make definitive judgements on this but generally this unprecedented amount of turnout would be bad for an incumbent and good for the democrats and it looks like we are looking at 150-165 million total, which is nearly in record territory Texas has already reached 100% of its 2016 turnout and the youth vote seems to be up. Jon Ralston has more or less already called Nevada for Biden based on county level analysis of turnout.
Lastly, polling. As it stands Biden is at about 10+ in the national poll average. He is ahead in nearly all swing states by between +1 to +6. Most crucially, district polling, which correctly predicted Trump's victory is all pointing the right way for Biden. For Trump to win we would need to see a 2x or 3x increase in the polling error from 2016.
Trump does have a very narrow path to victory which is predicated on him maintaining all of the states he won in 2016 and then using the supreme court to cancel ballot counting in Pennsylvania and some other states that have slow counts, but the most likely result at the moment is a Biden victory, with a Biden landslide more likely than a Trump win.