global financial crash yay!

IdleRich

IdleRich
"In theory a central bank could set its target rate to a negative real rate. It could, in theory, even set its target rate to a negative nominal rate. However, it could never make banks lend a rate that will put them out of business simply by buying and selling bonds."
So in theory yes but in practice no?

"In addition, very low rates of inflation have proved to be deadly, because they have fed asset inflationary bubbles, which in turn increased the amount of collateral available to borrow against, which in turn fed the spiral..."
Why would very low rates of inflation be the problem? You would expect it to be high wouldn't you?

I'll have to read it a few more times, but it looks like your Worgl story is about creating a currency that holds its value, i.e. is anti-inflationary, like a gold/commodity standard, rather than a currency that devalues and so forces you to spend it (which would be anti-deflationary).
Well, I can't say I understand it anything like fully (maybe it's not fully explained) but surely the fact that you have to pay something every month to make it hold its value means that it does devalue doesn't it? It made more complicated by the fact that it's backed by a national currency I guess.

"Negative interest rates? The bank lends me £100, but I only have to pay them back £98?
wtf?"
Weird eh?

An aside, my girlfiend just pointed out to me that I was turned down for a job at Landsbanki as well as Lehman - hmm, looks as though someone at those companies was making a lot of bad decisions.
 

vimothy

yurp
Negative interest rates? The bank lends me £100, but I only have to pay them back £98?

wtf?

Because of inflation -- but you are unlikely to benefit in such a manner. It could happen, and did with mortgages after huge rates of inflation in the '70s. More likely the bank will offer you rates of interest at or near the rate of inflation. I have just closed an ISA that was giving me 4%, which is slightly under inflation as measured by the CPI.
 

vimothy

yurp
Coordinated rate cut:

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and four other central banks lowered interest rates in an unprecedented coordinated effort to ease the economic effects of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank each reduced their benchmark rates by half a percentage point. The Bank of Japan, which didn't participate in the move, said it supported the action. Switzerland also took part. China's central bank separately cut its key rate 0.27 percentage point.

``We are now looking at the first page of the global- depression playbook,'' said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. ``The only solution is to cut rates as close to zero as you dare,'' pump money into the banking system ``hand over fist'' and increase government spending, he said.

Today's decision follows a global meltdown that sent U.S. stock indexes heading for their biggest annual decline since 1937; Japan's benchmark today had the worst drop in two decades. Policy makers are also aiming to unfreeze credit markets after the premium on the three-month London interbank offered rate over the Fed's main rate doubled in two weeks to a record...

The Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 1.5 percent. The ECB's main rate is now 3.75 percent; Canada's fell to 2.5 percent; the U.K.'s rate dropped to 4.5 percent; and Sweden's rate declined to 4.25 percent. China cut interest rates for the second time in three weeks, reducing the main rate to 6.93 percent.

Stocks at first rallied after the announcement, then turned lower. Some analysts said the central banks should have lowered rates by more, and predicted further reductions. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley now project another half-point move by the Fed at its Oct. 28-29 meeting.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index fell 1.1 percent to 984.94 at the close in New York, capping a 16 percent loss in six trading days. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slumped 6 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 9.4 percent to 9,203.32 earlier today, before the announcement.​
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Aargh -- I mean low interest rates!"
Easily done.
I liked this quote from the Labour MP Colin Burgon "What I see is the invisible hand of the market putting its hand into the pocket of the taxpayer and taking £50bn pounds away and maybe putting two fingers up as well" - but is he right?
 

vimothy

yurp
Ha -- I think yes to an extent, no to an extent. I mean, it's more like state and market collusion (fascism/corporatism), isn't it?

Macro Man on yesterday's madness in the Forex markets.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
So the FTSE 100 has dipped below 4000, the DJ is hovering above 8000. Coming soon:

CLOSED FOR BUSINESS
NOTHING IS WORTH ANYTHING
 

hucks

Your Message Here
<Clay Davis style sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeyut>

I've done NO WORK today, following all this online like it was the Ashes over by over or something.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Just looking at the FTSE now - up almost 6% with Lloyds and Barclays in the top three highest risers.... but HBOS the biggest faller down 7% to £1.15. Why is that, does that mean people think that the takeover/merger won't go through or at best will go through on different terms?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Not if you're one of the people who got HBOS stock when it demutualised, it's down more than 20% today to less than a pound. It was twelve quid last year. And to think I didn't cash them in 'cause I thought I would have just wasted the money... turns out I should have wasted it 'cause that would have been a lot more fun than watching it dwindling to nothing on a computer screen.
Anyway, that aside, is this going to save Brown's hide? Seems a bit weird to me if it does, even if he can be said to have dealt well with the crisis he surely bears as much responsibility as anyone else for allowing the crisis to arise (relatedly Bush is surely going to go down as one of the worst presidents of all time what with the financial crisis and him having no solution for it, not to mention the Iraq war, hurricane Katrina and being the commander in chief when the worst ever terrorist attack occurred on US soil). I guess the thing that benefits him are the fact that it is perceived as being the ways in which Labour emulated the Tories that have been the cause of the problems and that doesn't leave anywhere for the Tories to go. Most of the statements they have been releasing suddenly seem a lot more ineffectual than they did a month or so back, they're finding it hard to lay a glove on Labour now.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Not if you're one of the people who got HBOS stock when it demutualised, it's down more than 20% today to less than a pound. It was twelve quid last year. And to think I didn't cash them in 'cause I thought I would have just wasted the money... turns out I should have wasted it 'cause that would have been a lot more fun than watching it dwindling to nothing on a computer screen."
Looks as though I spoke too soon, it's down almost FORTY PERCENT now! Trading at 86.6p - Mother of God, is this the end for HBOS?
 

vimothy

yurp
Looks pretty good to me: recapitalisation, guarantees of bank debt, money to arrive in days... It's about being seen to do more than enough, isn't it, at this stage? Don't want to end up like Japan. Eurozone seems to be on board as well.
 

mms

sometimes
Looks pretty good to me: recapitalisation, guarantees of bank debt, money to arrive in days... It's about being seen to do more than enough, isn't it, at this stage? Don't want to end up like Japan. Eurozone seems to be on board as well.


also options for raising funds thru shares and the idea that bonuses are paid with shares and not massive wedges of cash too, which are sensible ideas.
 
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