global financial crash yay!

hucks

Your Message Here
I don't get all this stuff about the bank guarantees. UK is kicking up a fuss because Ireland and now Germany have raised the levels that they will guarantee but it wasn't standardised before was it? I mean they all seemed to offer different levels of protection and no-one seems to complain and no-one batted an eyelid when the UK raised its levels earlier in the year - why is it suddenly wrong when other countries raise theirs? Or am I missing something?

There were EU-wide minimum and maximum levels agreed, I think.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
I don't get all this stuff about the bank guarantees. UK is kicking up a fuss because Ireland and now Germany have raised the levels that they will guarantee but it wasn't standardised before was it? I mean they all seemed to offer different levels of protection and no-one seems to complain and no-one batted an eyelid when the UK raised its levels earlier in the year - why is it suddenly wrong when other countries raise theirs? Or am I missing something?

Isn't it because they think customers might flood out of (eg) UK banks and into Irish ones?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"There were EU-wide minimum and maximum levels agreed, I think."
Ah, OK, then it makes perfect sense to get annoyed about it. In fact, I now want to ask the opposite question; how are they allowed to unfairly benefit their own banks by breaking an EU agreed rule?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
So, no-one got anything to say about the events of yesterday in the financial world?
Off the top of my head all this (and more?) happened yesterday:

Record one day points decrease in the FTSE and every other bourse going in the same direction.
UK bank stocks particularly badly hit - partly due to uncertainty as to what the government intends to do.
Turns out it's not clear to what extent Germany are guaranteeing deposits - but other countries are still restless and making noises about following suit.
Icelandic Krone lost 30% against the Euro. In fact Iceland is in trouble with various wild schemes being considered including merging the biggest three banks.
BNP took a big stake in Fortis (that's the French bank not the political party - things aren't that bad yet).
Washington's bail-out got through at the second time of asking.

Probably loads of other stuff as well but what does it all mean? I'm particularly interested in what is happening in Iceland which seems as though it's having serious problems - what happens to a country when the currency collapses like that and the previously wealthy population with prosperity built on debt find that they are broke? Could be worth watching as preparation for when it happens in the UK and the US....
 

hucks

Your Message Here
Russia have loaned Iceland $4bn. Which isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but Iceland has a population of 330,000. It's like giving Coventry $4bn. Or the US....$3trillion?

Anyway, pointless scaling-up for population aside, it's an interesting move by Russia. What are they up to, I wonder?
 

DWD

Well-known member
So, no-one got anything to say about the events of yesterday in the financial world?

Not me! I'm all at sea when it comes to tumbling stocks, currency swings and national economies. All I'd say is that it's quite refreshing to have this looking a bit more like a common-or-garden economic crash for a while rather than the death of modern finance.
 

mms

sometimes
Russia have loaned Iceland $4bn. Which isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but Iceland has a population of 330,000. It's like giving Coventry $4bn. Or the US....$3trillion?

Anyway, pointless scaling-up for population aside, it's an interesting move by Russia. What are they up to, I wonder?

probably want some of that oil in return?


does anyone think things might be adjusting now?
 
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vimothy

yurp
TED spread (the highest ever, I think):

chart
 

mms

sometimes
How do you mean?

i mean do you think that things are as bad as they can get for now, that we've reached the critical point, we're closer to the real value of stocks and it's now recession time, which we'll have to deal with for the next few years?

@ crackerjack - good point about the eu, that does seem to be a priority for russia !
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"i mean do you think that things are as bad as they can get for now, that we've reached the critical point, we're closer to the real value of stocks and it's now recession time, which we'll have to deal with for the next few years?"
Ah, I wasn't sure if you meant that or if you were saying that Russia giving Iceland money represented a change in global power-structures.
Obviously I've absolutely no idea but I wouldn't be surprised if there was more to come though.
 

vimothy

yurp
Yeah -- the TED spread shows the difference between borrowing for three months on the interbank market and holding three month T-bills. According to Wikipedia, historically it's around 10 to 50bps (i.e. 0.01 to 0.5%).
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"I've just had to look up thes TED spread (at something like the 6th time of posting). So this means banks are currently lending to each other at 4% more than they're lending to the US govt?"
Pretty much. So that means that people think that the government is a lot safer bet than the banks. Looking on the bright side though, at least the government is still seen as a safe bet for the moment.... I guess if they start coming together again it could mean one of two things.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Did everone read about JPMorgan's possible role in Lehman's demise?"
Yeah, saw that. I have my doubts though, surely when bank(er)s go under they are willing to blame everyone except themselves but up until yesterday no-one even mentioned this - even though if it happened surely a load of people with every reason to make a racket about it would have known straight away. Also, as far as I know Richard Fuld didn't try to use it to take any of the heat off him when he was being bollocked about his pay package yesterday either did he?
We'll see I guess.
 

vimothy

yurp
Last night a trio of the UK's biggest banks - Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays, and Lloyds TSB - signalled to Alistair Darling that they'd like to see the colour of taxpayers' money rather quicker than he might have expected.

According to bankers, these three were disappointed that at a private meeting last night with Darling, held at his request, he didn't present to them a fully elaborated banking rescue plan....

On paper, Lloyds TSB, RBS and Barclays don't have a pressing need for additional capital.

But they have become concerned that they are being weakened significantly by investors' perception that they are short of capital and their balance sheets need to be strengthened....

The three banks estimate that they may need around £15bn of new capital each, with £7.5bn paid up front and a further £7.5bn guaranteed by the Treasury that would be delivered if it became necessary.

Current rough estimates are that the capital injection could be as much as £50bn in total for all British banks.​

RBS shares way down as a result.
 
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