Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
This does my head it. If you're so ashamed of planning to vote for a certain candidate that you feel compelled to lie about it, even in an anonymous survey, then perhaps you shouldn't vote for him!
Election 2020
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
yeah it's called the Bradley Effect (or in the UK, the Shy Tory factor). by its very nature it's hard to prove to what extent it exists.
so is nonresponse bias, i.e. Trump voters being less likely to respond to polling at all for whatever reasons, and so underreported
so both probably factors in inaccuracy of 2016 but no one knows to what extent
the main thing is that the polls would have to much more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for a Trump win, or as 538 puts it
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
polls in 2016 actually weren't that inaccurate. national polls were basically right, Hillary did win the popular vote. state polls were the issue, and they still weren't terrible. what Trump did was outperform them by a few points in a few key states to take the Electoral College win.
there's obviously no way of knowing if pollsters have improved their modeling - through attaching more importance to education in targeting likely voters or whatever - until after the election but you can at least say they'd have to be not only as wrong as last time, but much more wrong.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
which, of course, who wants to express overconfidence after last time
it's a supremely weird, chaotic year, and the GOP is obviously trying everything they can think to block votes
so who knows
it's a supremely weird, chaotic year, and the GOP is obviously trying everything they can think to block votes
so who knows
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
tho this in itself is also evidence that they know they're probably fucked in a basically fair fight
we'll know soon enough either way, no use worrying about it until then
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
This is doubly true, when you consider that the electoral college system is pretty unfair to start with, privileging as it does voters in the very small, overwhelmingly rural and correspondingly conservative states over those in the much bigger states with the big cities in them, where people tend to be more liberal.
Leo
Well-known member
there's also some anecdotal evidence that voter suppression tactics can sometimes backfire: I saw interviews with some people standing in the rain in long early voting lines in Georgia who said those efforts were a rallying call for them and their neighbors, made them more committed to voting and motivated to get others in their community out to get registered and vote as well.
linebaugh
Well-known member
Same. Seemed it all happened in a day. Was browsing yesterday and every publication seemed to collectively double back on earlier predictions and put out an article of the type. disconcerting
Leo
Well-known member
yes
Leo
Well-known member
the Dems have a large majority in the House which will probably even increase a bit, so that's safe. Winning both the presidency and Senate is certainly possible, as is a Biden win and GOP hold of the Senate (which would mean McConnell still in charge and nothing gets done for four years).
IdleRich
IdleRich
It's theoretically possible, but how likely is it that they win the senate, hold the house and yet don't win the presidency?
I really hope they win everything and completely fucking smash the Rs apart, just power through on every controversial issue as Trump would have done if he had the trifecta. Not a very democratic or even healthy wish but there you go.
I really hope they win everything and completely fucking smash the Rs apart, just power through on every controversial issue as Trump would have done if he had the trifecta. Not a very democratic or even healthy wish but there you go.
Leo
Well-known member
it's certainly possible trump wins and Dems control house and senate, hard to say how likely. one thing that's been known to happen is people vote the straight ticket, meaning if they vote for a Dem presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, they'll also vote for Dems all the way down the ticket as well. One reason the GOP is in trouble with the Senate because Trump is dragging them down.
Leo
Well-known member
All three -- Presidency, Senate and House -- are voted on by the people. They are separate votes, so any outcome is possible. I can vote for a Dem president, GOP Senator and Green Party House member, if I want.
House terms are two years and Senate is six years, and it's a rolling system where a certain number of House and Senate seats are up for election each year. A House rep who wins tomorrow doesn't need to run again next November, but a rep who won last November does need to run next year.
IdleRich
IdleRich
The electoral college is not decided by the same vote as the vote for the senators and representatives.
So - as I understand it - your average voter has a vote for the president, a vote for the house and one for the senate (governors is at a different time right?) - it seems obvious that they will vote either R or D on all three but it's not always like that, they might have a senator they like who is in a different party from the president they vote for.
In short the Senate is a separate election to the presidential one so it could have a different result.
Leo
Well-known member
even if you're registered with a party, you can vote for any party's candidate in November elections. trump was helped in 2016 by Dems who disliked Hillary and voted for him instead. Likewise, Biden is counting on votes from disgruntled Republicans. in the primaries, it's only voted on by those registered with that party (a few states allow independents to vote in primaries but not most).
shiels
_
The Truman Show stuff reminds me of a former boss. He saw solutions to all problems in The Best Person For Job (mainly his mates) so a form of ill-informed nepotistic technocracy. And then you learn to game this by flattering and ingratiating the boss with this status/expertise, positioning the expert to speak through the boss
No conviction here, no real intellect, little morality, scarce desire to speak the truth, but a lot of useful energy in that ego when you learn to work with it. And you can see how foreign agents must look at him in this way, as a channel